Canola seems range bound the market believes all is ok!

[SASKFARMER3]

Seems the dry cycle were in and looks to have taken hold of western canada yet the market is not even noticing what's going on! For us the dry cycle is excellent but for the non traditional areas that have had bad frost and now no real rain what's happening with your canola! Yes it's only last days of may but realistically yield could be effected in the non traditional growing areas or am I wrong!
Canola needs a certain amount of water! Mud doesn't work in our area but the longer the rain stays away the later in June and July it will flower and hats where the yield suffers!
But I know the experts feel all is great!

[bucket]

With our efficient railway system the industry can import canola. It would be a back haul from the ports.


Hahaha.

Good luck getting more acres now.

[tweety]

I thought you just said everything is awesome SF3? Best you've seen in a very long time.

[SASKFARMER3]

My area is awesome again read my comments its not about me! Traditional canola area I would say is great to good! Non traditional my guess is not so good! The industry grew and thought non traditional areas were the new normal! I'm saying weather I believe finally changes back to normal, time will tell but this springs weather is the best it's been for the flood Zone! I think we're back! YES!

[charliep]

As Errol indicated in a previous post, your biggest threat to canola prices is soybean fundamentals. Big south American crop in process of being harvested. Big soybean carryover in Argentina as a hedge against currency/anger over export taxes. Bigger US acres (yield to be determined. Uncertain demand starting with China.

[SASKFARMER3]

All points are correct except like always every thing is rosy in western canada! What a crock of shit the non area is dry and will be for another couple weeks. So like our floods no one gives a shit all is good! Ah **** we hit a ice berg captain!

[charliep]

Just curious what you would have the market do differently than it is today? Western Canadian canola supplies will be tight even with an above average crop - look at the AAFC s&d. Your challenge to higher canola prices is 32 cent/lb soybean oil futures.

[wakopa]

Sounds like another depressing year in farming .

[agstar77]

Canola has at best 5 to 10 years until disease catchs it. No more back to back or short rotations.

[tweety]

In Alberta its not 5 to 10, its now.

[tweety]

SF3 since canada is less then 2% of the veg oil market, how will weather affect prices of a crop hardly out of the ground?

[farmaholic]

Wakopa, I'm just grateful I didn't have to spend another 55 dollars an acre discounted 40% to reseed this year's canola crop. Yet....

Some terminals prices are so-so and some a bit better. Depends who needs it....kinda like wheat.

[Rareearth]

It's simple Charlie. It is a premium product, canola oil, that may be difficult to source this year. Premiums will have to be paid to secure supplies. Kind of like durum this year, or lentils. Canola oil was a premium to soy, and can be. What's the best measure to use oil compare this premium?

The trade likes to commoditize everything, it's much easier to buy and ship in massive volumes out competing small medium sized companies, reducing competition. There are likely some contracts in place for new crop canola(sales ) it depends on how many tons grower contracts are in place and if they are long or short for this new crop. If they are long the price to the grower likely moves sooner than latter(that's today's conspiracy theory) the exporters want to maximize revenues as they have the last year or two. It might be more challenging if the crop is small and they have to genuinely compete with other exporters.

[wakopa]

Wheat is great , after this year if I can get the yields gonna just grow wheat wheat wheat , now that I don't have those useless union government poeple running my farm . Screw the cwb

[farmaholic]

Suuuuuure....