Canola up, not from...

[boarderbloke]

dry or cold, but from soy oil and currency exchange!

Bean oil currently up .90 this morning!

Charliep has been saying for the last two years that canola can't go up because Bean prices are being driven by meal, well that might be changing.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, soyoil has not jumped out of its trading range of 31 to 34 cents per pound. See the weekly chart below.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZLN15&domain=farms&display_ice=1&e nabled_ice_exchanges=&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy= &a=W"]soyoil weekly[/URL]

Here the ICE canola weekly for information.
http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSN15&domain=farms&dis play_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&studies= Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W">canola weekly</a>

I think soybean oil will struggle to break current resistance but I could be wrong.

Will let you guys play the Canadian canola production guessing game. I will only comment you have an annual customer base of 16 million tonnes.
<a href="

[charliep]

Try again.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=RSN15&domain=farms&display_ice=1&e nabled_ice_exchanges=&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy= &a=W"]canola weekly[/URL]

[charliep]

Will be up the meal price as well. Be thankfull the majority (70 % ish of the value of canola comes from the vegetable oil side.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=ZMN15&domain=farms&display_ice=1&e nabled_ice_exchanges=&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy= &a=W"]soybean meal[/URL]

[boarderbloke]

Man,,,you just keep turning off the light at the end of my tunnel ! lol

With costs, need canola $10.50 plus, and I'm not even in a dry area.

[SASKFARMER3]

The market knows shit all that's the truth with electronic trading! Some computer programs are running numbers for experts on how t suck all this cro out of farmers hands before the real shit show hits! Companies know you have a long way to go but it's June and yield is dropping! Lots won't be reseeded! Total acreage is down and dropping everyday! Crop in the USA is going into mud and we know how that works so yes let's us guess what's going on in our canola crops!

[charliep]

We are not that far from $10.50 new crop today depending on the basis you can negotiate. $460 November futures. We have broke resistance could move higher but I would be nervous.

I would start looking at owning some puts as price insurance - particularly if you don't like the basis levels companies are offering in their DDC contracts. I think a small crop will have more impact on basis than futures.

[charliep]

Just checked a grain website and see canola fall basis (Alberta) in the $10 to $20 under area which puts Oct/Nov bids in the $10 to $10.20/bu range. You need $480 to achieve the $10.50 price target at the weaker basis.

[SASKFARMER3]

You also need to grow a crop to have some thing to sell! Oh Alberta isn't perfect either! Time will tell but e every shitty day in spring takes yield away!
Have a great Friday!

[charliep]

I do recognize that loosing yield potential has a far greater impact on bottom line than price volatility. Perhaps another reason to buy puts or use futures - more flexible/no delivery commitment.

I suspect you are not a new crop seller today regardless. Your normal patterns have been late winter pricing.

[charliep]

Actually is a very interesting day for both canola and soybean oil. Did the oil/meal value share based on futures. Canola is still around 70 % vegoil and 30 % meal. Soybean oil share is about 36 % vegoil and 64 % meal - vegoil share has increased.

[errolanderson]

Enhanced U.S. EPA biodiesel mandate ruling driving soyoil and canola sharply higher today.

[charliep]

Thanks Errol,

Attached is an article. Others can post additional information.

[URL="http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/articles/402523/epa-rfs-proposal-gives-biodiesel-a-modest-trajectory-of-growth"]bio diesel policy[/URL]

[Hamloc]

I don't know what it is like in Saskatchewan but where I am in central Alberta it is fairly dry and from what I understand drier to the east. We have flea Beatle problems showing up, certainly more concerned about poor yield potential than I have been for a couple years.

[furrowtickler]

Striped flea Brattleboro are now destroying anything not treated with lumiderm or will be in the next 3-5 days