Canola on a runaway?

[Guest]

just curious , many stated on here western Canada and our canola crops are of little consequence to price , yeah right ? you bet your ass canadian crushers will pay , they need it . canola is officially a wreck , oh sure there will be some good areas , hopefully for guys that have been missing . I might be wrong but I don't see where soy is on a runaway ? I'm kinda thinking canola will go through the roof and soy might go along for the ride ,wonder why we aren't hearing more from all of our pricing experts about what a "wreck " this canola crop really is, or how far down spring seeded acres really were ??? big secret , I guess . western producer , what do you think, lol

[SASKFARMER3]

11 plus with good basis now or over ten for fall!
One problem crushers are all doing a June slow down or shut down! Ah farming where when it's our time to shine the big boys take their ball and close shop!
Do nothing is looking like a good plan!

[Guest]

probably doing shutdown cause they're out of canola . on crusher was after our July contracts in seeding , anyways gonna find out real soon whose bullshittin and whose payin

[saskcanfarmer]

They are doing shutdowns because margins are slim to non existence. Nothing to do with running out of canola. Be interesting to hear the term demand destruction later on in the season.

[charliep]

On your sentence, how big a China canola program this fall? Realizing the differences in oil meal content, will China stay with canola or switch to cheap soybeans? Will grain companies take a risk on a potentially small canola crop or prioritize wheat/other crops with bigger carryovers/less sourcing risk?

Markets that go straight up scare me. Enjoy the ride but know when to pull the trigger.

[fjlip]

Wheat, oats, soyoil and canola all up ...CAD down, oil down, USD up.

[Guest]

just pisses me off , this is a big wreck .how come noone is talking about it ?

[Guest]

and why are they after our july aug contracts in may if they arent short of canola . theyll have to dip into last 2 years insane profits like we have to with $5 wheat i guess, no margins in that either

[Hopperbin]

Canola a buck over soybean. Some more room for improvement in my opinion.

[farmaholic]

Canola up a bit today. Too bad I sold a couple weeks to early. Are basis widening out to absorb some of it?

[charliep]

What I find interesting is the old/new crop spread - narrowed up slightly. Most companies are pricing off November anyway. Having said, I would watch this spread. Canola carryover in the 1 MMT (Ag Canada) to 1.5 MMT range is tight but less significant with potentially an early harvested crop.

[jake550]

Defiantly a canola wreck in our area.
What canola is more accurate.
Lots are reseeding but we all know June seeding has its own problems. Time will tell I guess.
If it freezes August 19 like it did in 2004 it won't matter when it was seeded.
Gotta love this farming.

[hobbyfrmr]

Jake, if it freezes Aug 20, it's not going to matter on any farm!

[ado089]

Im kind of glad I still have half of last years canola in the bin unpriced. July put call spreads are sitting maxed out. Too bad a crop this year is quickly evaporating and freeze drying. Also glad I've only got 50 lbs of N down so far.