Proof mathematically that marketing works

[charliep]

Okay, there are 3 quarters which had the extremes. Also the last sentence referred to the pain of lower prices. too easy to hit send without proper editing.

[tweety]

So if you were going to 6 month DCA, the majority should happen December to June. This is personally what i do, along with reading crop conditions - like a drought - like excellent growing conditions - etc

Now how would that compare to doing different forms of marketing woo (risk management strategies)? Would i be ahead? Are risk management strategies a guaranteed plus on the above very simple DCA strategy? If so can it be determined by how much? Or is it a wash on long term average? Me thinks it would be a wash, good bad risk management decisions averaged to null benefit.

[charliep]

I too some extent agree with last sentence. I will get cursed for a bad analogy but here goes. Marketing is like golf - no ideal plan for everyone. Having said, the outcome is same - get the ball in the whole with as a few a strokes as possible. The strategies every golfer uses will be different. The clubs in your bag are the tools. Pick the one you are comfortable with for the shot you want to make. You can get the driver and blast it who knows where. You can jockey down the fairway with safe shots using your 7 iron.

[Hopperbin]

Klause are you at 5 percent sold for new crop? Does not sound like you.

[PrairieDude]

Does anyone use farm link or agrtrend or achieve. Just curious where their sales plan is at. Who throws the best dart

[samhill]

I just use Dad'sadvice:

If you always take a good price, you'll never have a bad one.

KISS

Ha Ha

[tweety]

So am i left assuming marketing is bullshit?

[blackpowder]

Explain what u mean by risk management.
Are you talking options collars to assist in paying for a "floor price".
Or just talking forward selling physical.

[tweety]

All the risk management stuff that's taught in week long courses that every good little farmer is supposed to do.

puts calls basis contracts (nothing like a good basis on a shitty price to improve the bottom line!) futures... Kind of everything but DDA or daily cash price. Although DDA could be argued as risk management, not for this discussion as its just as simple as daily cash price.

[blackpowder]

Without proof.
Grain companys do it. Any expense is paid for in your basis.
Removal of all risk would be as simple as selling a little every day. Without brokers expense.
The proof of wich u seek young skywalker does not exist.
No farmers pure hedge nor average out.
All other scenarios hinge on individual timing of decisions.
Im of the belief that any "risk management" by definition would have a cost.
A blending of all the tools available using each for a specific purpose would be my utopia.

[Hopperbin]

Black said. Im of the belief that any "risk management" by definition would have a cost. Exactly hail in, puts calls, have a cost in the case your going to freek out in case price increases or drops after you sell. That same marketing class taught you to use free tools. Cannot put dollar value on it but am sure you paid for your one week class.

[tweety]

Just saying it does, does that make it?

[Hopalong]

Much the same could be said about investing.
No such thing as free lunch, the harder we work at it ourselves, the better chance of success.
Paying others to do things for us will have a cost, you could be right that it will be more than any extra return.
Everyone likely to have somewhat different result.

[tweety]

Given the emphasis placed on "good marketing" i would have thought the answer would be more obvious.

[wakopa]

Guess I better stay out of this one about marketing, lol , I find it usually very easy and why would I hire someone to do it for me , it's fun now .