Market Accordingly....

[charliep]

Actually the maps are likely more relevant to the cattle side. Had started to increase cow numbers/retain heifers but the scenario from these graphs will likely put that on hold. A part of the rationing process on reduced feed supplies - pasture, forage and grain.

[freewheat]

Charlie, you answered your own questions! lol.

I think canola may go through the roof if it is a true drought. Canola sucks in drought. Lots of export needs and lots of domestic crush now. If they wanna keep running, they will need to pay up.

I agree on the feed grains too. Barley and faba do not do well in drought apparently. The local hog barns will pay up to the point it becomes feasible to import corn. But they still need peas and faba beans.

If we get a really bad production year, those with the fortunate mix of crops, and a few timely rains will be laughing all the way to the bank.

Those who get dried right out will be watching prices go up, with little to sell.

Wait, that is what we in the mud did for most of the last decade, and I do not wish it on anyone. It is bad enough having poor crops. But watching while 80% of the prairies rolls in the dough sucks. But the bad new is, if this weather keeps up, it will be more like 80% watching the 20% of lucky folks.

To all on here, I hope we are the lucky ones, to a one.

Good luck on catching those elusive rains. Even here in the wet zone, it is a matter of time. That rain the other night, when I was all excited and sitting under the tin roof of my kids playhouse, did not give us enough to wet the top half inch where my canola sits waiting... Another ten minutes of rain would have done it...

[charliep]

Somewhat depend on how MCOOL get sorted out, western Canada will see a lot of calves moving south or at least the finishing side. Likely makes a lot more sense to ship a 850 pound steer south to cheap corn versus bringing 3500 pounds/90 tonnes of corn north to finish that same steer.

Forage supplies with the fit of annual crops will be a key issue over the winter.

[charliep]

Too early in the morning or some other excuse. I may have to even mention age.

Lets make that 3500 pounds into 1.6 tonnes. 500 pounds of gain times feed conversion of 7.

I am glad an animal doesn't eat a rail car of corn.

[farmaholic]

Freewheat. They tell us the lid on canola prices is soy and other veg oils. UNLESS exporter and "true/real (not COPA based margins) have room to pay up.

I agree Charlie, this dryness has to be tough on cattle production. Pastures and hay. Cattle are living creatures and have to eat. Not much you can do with a droughted out crop.

[cottonpicken]

Pretty hard to find an exucuse to be naked short right now unless the macro moves against us which it could but it could also move the other way

[Nudge]

In Moose Jaw area there has been no measurable precip since 04/26. Crops are hurting. This is one of the highest yielding areas for durum and pulses. Also a lot of canola production over the last few years.

[freewheat]

What stage are crops at at MJ, nudge?

[stonepicker]

sk3, surely you're smart enough to figure out why prices sometimes go down at harvest, and it has nothing to do with the grain company screwing you.