Anyone wanna talk land prices?

[freewheat]

In light of the situation with dryness, does everyone still feel that land is a bargain in Saskatchewan? Or is there a reason we have historically had lower values than Illinois?

lol. Just toying with y'all. Tongue in cheek, yet kind of serious and curious.

Anyone see downward pressure coming on land values, or will it take a few years?

[BreadWinner]

I think its going to take allot of hurt in the farming community and high interest rates to push land values down. Lots of farms with huge equity and buying power to keep the Values stable they may even continue to increase. I hate to say it but it might get harder to find land to buy in the future.

[jake550]

I truly would have expected land prices to level off or decline a bit by now.... Not happening yet.
The latest sale nearby that just happened for fall possession is a higher price than ever.

[farmaholic]

Lets see what happens. The first to feel it will be marginal grain land. And if feed is an issue for the cowboys even pasture and hayland. There will always be those areas where the land is above average quality in areas with well heeled generational or foreign money that will hold up quite well. The rest? Time will tell but I'd bet on it plateauing or a slight to modest correction if things continue to go south.

[Richard5]

I think there are too many people who have over extended themselves by purchasing every qtr of land they could get financing for and at $2000 per acre.

In addition to that they have got caught in the trap of lease debt. Too many basing the decision on the new piece of equipment on a cash flow cost of the equipment lease rather than real cost. New iron leased or not is still the highest cost at the end of the day. Not saying never buy new but some people its all new, every year, year after year.

Now 2014 hit these guys real hard and they are on their last thin thread. Everything is financed to the limit and lucky if they make enough in 2015 to cover costs. Banks and largely to blame, just keep giving another mortgage on land

Bankruptcy and debt settlement/mediation people will be real busy in the next year or two

[freewheat]

Breadwinner, I hear you on the difficulty to get more land in the future. There are fewer and fewer guys retiring and quitting, and most land that is farmed these days is kind of sewn up by the tenant if it does go on the "market". Around here, the only way there will be land available to anyone to have a chance at, is if someone dies. Otherwise it is kind of sewn up.

Longer term, there is a lot of land farmed here by young 30 to 40 year old bachelors and their dads, with no wives or family upcoming. In say 20 or 30 years, unless they marry real quick, and breed real fast, a whole pile of land will be in play all at once. Maybe sooner as the dads die off and the labor becomes dicey???

[freewheat]

Wow Richard, you sound kinda pessimistic. You sound like the type that feels a lot of the "wealth" around the country is debt driven, huh? I suppose looks can be deceiving. Maybe my neighbors are not all that well off???

[farmaholic]

Freewheat, sneak a peak of their balance sheet...

[freewheat]

Lol. I was once in our neighbors home while they were gone, and they must have been doing their taxes. They are known in the region for being wealthy, and they had bank statements and boxes and boxes of information. I was curious, like a kid on Christmas eve, unsure if I should take a peek. I did not. Probably for the better. Who knows, maybe one box had all their Calidon lease paperwork, their fcc mortgages, or what have you. Maybe the bank statement was a negative balance of 700 000 bucks. Who knows, huh? Thankfully I really don't care. Good on them for being a success.

Lol.

[farmaholic]

Lots of yardsticks to measure success with freewheat. Not just the prosperity one.

[freewheat]

Very true.

[Ronski]

Freewheat you are an honest man. If we ever meet I own you the first round.

[ajl]

Land is starting to move lower. The real fun will be this winter when a smaller crop at these prices will empty the bank account. We had a fairly large crop last year to keep the boat afloat but 3 in tall flowering lentils and 10" tall flowering peas will make things interesting. Not even Hutts can make that work. The only thing that maintains prices is if land is needed for Chinese money laundering or not. Finally came out in mainstream media that Vancouver real estate prices were so high because of Chinese money laundering. Everyone who didn't know that please raise your hand.

[Ronski]

owe not own, damn phone. damn beer

[dalek]

Damn phones all you want but never a disparaging word about beer.