Weather Forcast to go multi days over 30... no rain.

[TOM4CWB]

If weather forcasters are correct... we are about to have crops burn up over the next 10 days in western Canada.

[TOM4CWB]

Nov 15 Canola $521. Going to???

My bet is... $600. Crushers are holding internal meetings... It will take a miracle to pull this one out of the fire. The orange crush... in another form... for Alberta.

[tweety]

Poor Alberta. First no one voted for ndp and now a drought. You can always move here to sask!

[SASKFARMER3]

Tom a week of 30 isn't that big of a issue but this year their is wind from the NW that could suck up moisture real quick if it ever turns to the SW and the Arizona heat comes now that is a issue. Funny South West part of Sask is for above 30 to higher for the next five days were 28 or less with only one over 30. Its a big country but yes this blocking pattern needs to go away soon or other areas will have issues in this thunder shower year.
Why Alberta went ORANGE I will never ever understand but once they got the golden goose its funny how quick they want to eat it instead of letting if produce gold for years.
Hope I am wrong but lots of places in REGINA OR SASKATOON to move to. Maybe we don't have the mountains but our lakes and steams and northern areas really out shine Alberta's .

[TOM4CWB]

This is a commodity marketing forum... I thought... and AGAIN I said Canola to $600/t if no rain in June. Where do others think it is going???

I wasn't complaining about the ND gov... there very well could be many more benefits than problems in the short run... than having PCPrentice as Premier!!!

[freewheat]

More like 650-700 IMHO. Just going from what guys on here are saying, but if overall there is a wreck, canola will decouple in a big way from soy, and the crushers are going to jolly well have to pay to get product.

The lucky this year, are going to be real lucky.

How much barley is out there, and how is it hanging on? They might be begging for Xena to malt!!!

[Braveheart]

I don't believe canola can hit 600. Soybean oil will be the drag. Crush margins have to be really tight to negative. If it continues crushers will idle plants and there goes demand. What about exports? They must be almost non existent right now? If demand drops domestic and export how far can fund and other specs push futures? Not to $600, I don't think.

[TOM4CWB]

Brave,
Take a look at 2002-03 and crush margins. these guys have much crushed oil on the books... contracts that must be filled. This is a matter of averages. Few growers recall the negative $150/mt margins that happen in a drought.

[Braveheart]

Doesn't demand for oil really pick up after Christmas and into the new year? I just think without more strength on bean oil canola might stall.

I actually thought the EPA's biofuel mandate might have buoyed bean oil, but any spark was short lived.

[hobbyfrmr]

Simmer down fellas. We can guess and talk up the market all day long. If there is a trend line average crop in the US, prices may have moderate spikes, but the crushers will invest in themselves and pay tens of millions of dollars to modify the crush plant before they will be held hostage by western Canada farmers. Feeders will import corn and/or DDG if barley gets out of hand .
If the USA has drought and below trendiline average corn and bean crops then lookout it will be high prices.
The only reason we had the last run up on prices was because of the drought in the USA. $6.00 / bushel corn was what dictated our good fortune.
Only grain farmers like high grain prices.

[TOM4CWB]

Cattle feeders I know don't mind high prices for grain either. A margin business... that they start with low cost steers and make money the whole way up. Good operators know this saga like winter turning to spring. Good operators have plenty of feed on hand... and sell it for big bucks custom feeding.