Canola Prices

[bucket]

Eyebrow is at minus 58 bucks a tonne on canola.

It's ****ing crazy. GDT up the line is minus 35. Same company 35 miles apart.

Same rail line.

Nope not getting ****ed at all.

[charliep]

It is a time that having knowledge/ability to use futures/options to lock in prices will likely be an advantage with the caveat you better be prepared to top up margin if things go crazy. Basis says to defer cash pricing. Futures are rallying.

Just ideas/not recommendations but assuming we make our way to $560, start buying puts. A way to finance the puts would be to sell $600 calls. The worst outcome would be you have a short futures position at $600 - effectively a grain pricing order.

[Braveheart]

I know it's a much different world than in 1980 when I took my first grain marketing course, but, the instructor said, and this is more often true than not, as soon as everyone on the street starts saying, "buy futures, they can only go up", it's time to sell.

If you want to see God laugh, tell him your plans.

[charliep]

Actually I am thinking about my speaking engagements with Don Bousquet. Don was always a bull and I was the bear. We did our best job of presenting the information and everyone took what they/made their own decisions.

[cottonpicken]

If your sitting naked at 150 an acre you have lost ballpark 30 on canola and wheat big ruff guesstimate on a year when there is no profit.

Playing the options market on the put side seems real risky at this point i kind of think calls to limit anymore downside makes more sence just an opinion.

One other aspect is actual value of product historically. Everyone thinks oil is low now but not to long ago it had never been as high. My opinion is prices are actually very low now so the upside is high.