Red-Hot Barley Prices

[errolanderson]

Drought-stricken pastures have forced cattle back into feedlots creating quite a stir in cash barley bids.

Top-end southern Alberta delivered bids have been heard approaching $5/bu for Jul/Aug movement.

But fly-in-the-ointment is the decline in cattle prices which is now placing a squeeze on feeding margins.

The U.S. now has a meat glut in cold storage. Beef prices have held up well, but not true for pork cutout values.

[charliep]

Not going to start another post but very interested in hay prices. If you can help me out with approximate location.

Pasture land in the southern states is looking very good for the first time in many years. Expansion of the cattle herd including heifer retention is in full swing south of us.

[mcfarms]

Charlie 180-220 you know where i am. having real fun with guys trying to back out of supply agreements.

[sumdumguy]

oats price should follow barley.

[charliep]

Ouch. Peoples attention is elsewhere on these threads but I think the real market to follow will be the domestic feed one. Western Canada should be in a cow herd expansion mode as well but current hay prices will send a lot of cows to market and high grain prices calves south.

Was on a conference call yesterday where they indicated current fat cattle prices are higher Canada than in the US. Says something about supplies. Am leaving another thread go but we live in a world of unintended consequences.

[mcfarms]

Charlie theres a post on the beef side that references old crop hay at 300 at a sale in sk.

[errolanderson]

Charlie, Alberta dressed cattle bids took kicking last week. Cow bids have eased off their record highs. Texas, Kansas, Nebraska cash cattle bids have worked their way to $150/cwt, well off spring highs.

The cattle board is also showing cracks. This all suggests feeding margins are going to be tight this fall. U.S. feed by-products are now being shipped into southern Alberta.

Changing dynamics in the feeding industry . . . .

[errolanderson]

update . . . Texas, Kansas cash cattle traded at $147/cwt this morning.

[rockpile]

Errol, the feedlots I've driven by the past 2 months were basically empty. This is east of Calgary. In fact Lakeside looked like they were completely shut down! That used to be the biggest feedlot in Canada. So with 300/T hay and $5.00 barley, there have to some pretty good margins out there for both cow -calf guys and feedlots to stay in the game. Even though beef prices in the grocery store are out of this world, I have to wonder if anybody is actually making money.

[errolanderson]

Thanks rockpile . . .

Feeding economics are being strained.
Suspect a strong flow of feeders to the U.S. due to cheaper corn this fall.

This feels like a day when cash grain markets have bottomed and cash cattle markets have peaked. Quickly changing market fundamentals.

[Braveheart]

What effect will repeal of MCOOL have if it happens?

[bucket]

Texas having pasture is one reason cool is disappearing. Where else can they go for cattle?


It has nothing to do with ritz's negotiating skills.

[charliep]

Mcool hasn't been sorted out yet with the senate trying to find a face saving way out including voluntary labeling. From a couple of things I have read, not a big change short term. Many plants will remain US only based on established processes. Other factors are likely to be more important short term than mcool policy or lack thereof. Manitoba may be slightly different given your distance to feedlots south versus west.

[charliep]

In the world of strange with nothing to do with barley, US retail egg prices are higher than supply managed Canada. Impact of bird flu on US layer numbers.

[errolanderson]

U.S.appears swimming in pork in cool storage. This will likely keep a cap on our hog bids through summer. Impact of cheap corn being fed through livestock.