Yield for Wheat is a Droping World Wide!

[SASKFARMER3]

So I just love our crop reporting in Canada where every thing is ok. Informa just released that wheat yields are dropping and production world wide is 4 mt less do to it being dry in two countries. Here is the comment.

IGC cut its global wheat production forecast by 4 million tonnes since last report with cuts for EU, India and Australia. It now stands at 711 million tonnes. It also cut carryout by 4 million tonnes to 196 million.
No mention of the shit show in Canada or that mud in the USA makes for shitty grades shitty yields and lost acreage. What a BULL shit world we live in.

Dryness threatens further cut to Argentine wheat sowings hopes. The Buenos Aires grains exchange, which last week cut its estimate for Argentine wheat sowings, warned that a further downgrade could be in the offing, thanks to dry weather in major producing regions.

But today in my mail box emails from Two grain companies to lock in a profit for harvest now before fall so you can secure a safe price. FM is all I can say. Our area has potential, yes that's true but if the forecast continues for rest of July our yields will be reduced. The area that is dry will probably not harvest very much, So Again Here is our buyers trying to Take farmers grain for cheap price before the shit hits the fan. A useless crop reporting system that just cant say we have major issues in Canada and We are going to have lower production.
If you have a canola contract for fall I would be talking to someone about your production short fall before the shit really does hit the fan.
One group was out saying Canola still will be over 15mt. HA HA HA HA HA.
Fell off my chair. See when you never get out of the Office you just cant see the big world.
Ah Friday where the temps are going to explode.
But good news the USA is on for more heavy rains that will definitely increase their yield. Tongue in cheek.
Ah grain marketing.

[bucket]

Yesterday a fairly interested party let's say said the canola crop would be sub 10 mmt


I was shocked by the statement but when he explained the area affected it made sense.

This is one monster disaster in the making. Far greater than 1988.

You would think our elected officials with ties to the guys on the national news last night would wake the **** up.

In 1988 the cheques were being sent out by harvest time.


Canola carryover now moves to zero for July 2016.

[SASKFARMER3]

Well not today in the USA .216 overnight. Rain makes grain in USA maybe someone is finally waking up.
News in Canada its all right just don't say the D word.

[bucket]

The National had Kent erickson from the alberta wheat commission showing off his astounding canola crop.

I would be pretty sure he had talked to his mlas and mp long before he called cbc for an interview.

[SASKFARMER3]

Rain wont recover a canola crop that is dying or will be done by Monday. Charlie can talk all he wants that our supply and buyers etc. but reality is this is one huge drop in total production. Now it looks like Europe is hot and dry and other places have issues.
But again in Canada its all ok we don't want to upset any one with reality.
See the flood zone was a smaller area and we really didn't matter in the big picture as the rest of the prairies enjoyed all the rain. But now with the flood zone still hanging in and the rest dry I am worried. It is a very large area that produced mountains of grain. Its where the Great Canola experiment was going to get to 25 mil mt.
But if the Politicians couldn't care and were going to study our situation till it dried up I feel the guys who have issues with Drought are in for one rough ride. See a election is on its way and parliament will be out so getting this drought thing straitened out will not happen till next spring. Oh their counting on a wet winter with lots of snow and wet spring 2016. Its all part of the optics of Bull shit in Canada.

[Guest]

yea , I am sick and tired of it . when they come sniveliling , just tell them to go to hell. tell them there is a glut of commodities , go find it elsewhere. 2 weeks ago they were telling us canola wouldn't go up because of soy . don't worry about locking in a profit , bleed them for every cent you can get (and it will be lots ) we are about to find out just how important Canada is . and tell them to shove contracts up their ass, let them find out about risk or maybe if you have a contract you can't fill , tell them may not get filled until fall of 16 , lol. lots waited that long to deliver in the last 2 years, tell them it's beyond your control

[bucket]

Come September it's going to get interesting how some points are going to fill trains, port facilities and boats.

Imagine having a boat booked for September and later and not being able to fill it?

[Guest]

maybe the arrogant railroads will miss us ???

[bucket]

Here is my new marketing strategy. Load truck phone around for very best price stop on scale and renegotiate.

Repeat.

[Guest]

or let them come and probe bins , make an offer then pick it up at farm when and if it suits you

[bucket]

Caseih

Why would I let them know where my grain is.

Do they provide any transparent reports yet?

All they need to know is what is going to be dumped.

They can scratch their heads the rest of the time.

I must say though where I haul my grain the people are really good and they understand wtf is going on.

[SASKFARMER3]

I like the comment on cant deliver on my contracts till fall of 2016. Funny some of the oats from the year 2002 or 2004 wasn't delivered till the following fall. But then oats was worth a lot higher because it was in such scarce supply.
See in Canada under the cone of silence the Grain companies definitely know the shit show in rural Canada. But because nothing gets reported till its to late they are able to Manipulate the market before hand. Did I say that me bad. They can get grain out of stupid farmers before the shit show happens. Did I say that. They change the delivery month and add because they can when you roll your contract.
Grain markets in Canada are F#$ked we have the three pigs when before we just had one useless idiotic relic.

But remember we need 25 mil mt of canola. Our varieties are their to get us through any thing. Our new drills are way better designed to handle any condition.
Just ask a crop advisor that tells you to still keep putting fungicides etc on a crop that hasn't had any rain this year. I'm sure someone has seen that advise.
All the shit in the world can not work if mother nature doesn't at least cooperate just a little.
We learnt that in the flood years. Mud is a Dud and Drought wipes you out.

[Guest]

good enough to let people out of contracts without a great big admin fee ?

[farmaholic]

Anyone sitting with past due delivery on a contract?

Does everyone have their target prices or grain pricing order contracts signed? Hurry get them in, only way to get grain sold for fall of 2016.

I wonder if the canola $10u price lever will pry any bin doors open on unpriced grain this year(15/16)?

[farmaholic]

correction: "fall of 2015"