drought 1988 and 2015

[bucket]

Freewheat

This isn't just one bad year.

This is a series of bad years.

2010 was wet - 36 inches of rain.
2011 thru 2014 was in between wet and getting stuck trying to get back on track.

2015 with a dryer basis was to get it back fully. Pretty close I think I got 90 percent seeded again. I told the guy I buy my inputs from if I can average 25 bpa across the board I would be pretty happy considering what I was seeing at the time. I am still losing 25 bpa because my farm will be close to a zero. At 25 bpa I am inputting what my crop insurance covers at the level I chose. So I am guaranteed about 18 bpa because I am on stubble and my average with too wet hasn't increased with crop insurance using a 10 year average.

25 bpa is a pipe dream now. And I really don't want 5 bpa either. It just adds more expense.

But the ground essentially didn't start this year. A reasonable input level was used and it didn't rain. And the guys that got it started are not any further ahead - their crops are baking in the heat and dry.

I think you should look at what happens if this was a normal crop and what your returns would have looked like by now if we were staring down a 20 mmt potential canola crop. Think of the money you would be out had that happened.

I am happy for your potential for this year you deserve it. But realize if everyone produced a crop like in 2013 this year things wouldn't look so rosy for you either.

This drought is so widespread if it gets ignored a whole lot of change will happen. And the experiment may not be to your liking.

Because it means another consolidation to bigger farms and those guys will be guaranteed government support just like the evraz potash gm ford bombardier of the world therefore making your farm either a target or left out.

Don't be quick to destroy your neighbors, the next ones might not be better.

[samhill]

Got to say I'm with Freewheat on this one. With Agri invest and Agri Stability and crop insurance you can't handle the first drought in I don't know how many years, then too much was spent on something that isn't economic. If spent on inputs then this year is summer fallow, but next year should work. Ma Nature has been here every year, and while she always bats last, a farmer has to know she can throw some pretty mean junk. It's not the '30's dust bowl.Many of us make do with low cost equipment and acres that are family oriented. A study out of Iowa showed the most efficient farm size was about 950 acres. So if you swing for the fences, sometimes you strike out. Heck, its easy enough to strike out going for singles and bunts.

[riders2010]

For all the guys that lost crops due to flood or what ever in the last years there is no *** agristability, fk me there wasn t even any then its so fkd up.
but for the people who had 5 bumpers there will be the biggest aid package in history. Don t assume that people suffering all went out and bought new equipment and spend winter in the Bahamas.

I m not talking about the broad ass people although It wouldn t surprise me if they somehow get a a big *** payout and put on the *** application we couldn t seed it was too dry and wait for the check. That's how fk d up this all is.

[bucket]

Broad acre, one earth and others had government connections.

These programs were designed to help those that wanted to find a way to syphon some more money into their pockets without using brown bags or getting appointed to the Senate.

[freewheat]

Riders, it is all about personal choices. We chose not to feel the hot desire to be the best, to be the biggest, to play the game most do. So we do not NEED a bunch of land to make a living. We live cheap. We buckled down HARD during the last awful years. We are building a flock, not on borrowed money, but by keeping back ewe lambs. We did not borrow for machinery to get into sheep, I feed them BY HAND, a tractor never starts all winter.

IF the guys who are in a world of hurt can't handle the financial pain coming, they can sell me their seedmasters with the useless bells and whistles, that their farm HAD TO BUY to be feasible. They can rent out some land they bought at 3000 an acre, that they HAD TO HAVE cuz they aint making it anymore, and besides, what would we ever do if neighbor Bill bought it??? The horror!

I have explained many times: Historically we are in one of the top ten areas for growing canola, so I had some tremendous yields built up. When the wet years hit, if you did not seed, you did not get a ZERO. If you did not make a claim, while others around you did, that helped too.

I will be the first to admit on here, I am hurting financially. I always have been, so I am used to financial constraints. I think that is what may be so confusing for you. I have lived like a peasant my whole life, because of life circumstances, so I know what being efficient means.

And yes, selling a bunch of eggs IS actually helpful, because it puts a lot of the food on the table we do not grow ourselves.

We do not buy fancy campers, we have a 500 dollar enormous tent. We do not buy a boat, we fish from shore. We do not go to Mexico in the winter, we go to the lake with our ice auger.

I bought land when it was economically realistic, not when it wouldn't pencil for 60 years. If I run out of credit in the spring, I do not keep spending on fungicides, etc.

This year, to be cost effective and to save on some inputs, I seeded a bunch of faba beans. CHEAP to grow as heck. Got much less than 100 bucks in that crop. It allows me to max out on the other crops like canola.

I get a bit mystified when someone attempts to call me out. My wife and I choose to live life differently than 99% of the people around us. We choose simplicity. We refuse to cave to the pursuit of STUFF. It is that simple. It can be done. I think it should be done more.

What mystifies me, is farms who do not raise most of their own food. Farms with land and extra grain, that refuse livestock of any kind, because it is oh so smelly, oh so time consuming, and ties you down. THAT is mystifying!

[Klause]

There's a problem here.



Large areas got the shit kicked out of them with flooding and now a drought... The crop insurance levels have been dropping and there is no cushion in their pockets. They didn't buy all new equipment or campers or ultra expensive land These are guys like bucket and riders 2010


Then there is the areas that have had near perfect conditions and bumper crops for the last 6 years... but kept spending on land equipment and toys... now they have a bad year and no way to cushion themselves.





The first group needs some help... it's not their fault they got both short ends.



The second group... well... 6 good years and 1 drought if you have no capital built up, decent crop insurance and a way to make it thru 1 bad year tough luck so sad book Ritchie Bro.

[freewheat]

You stole my words, JWAB. That is the trouble indeed. Maybe they need inherritance history, balance sheets, income statements, machinery ownership paperwork, wife income records, paid for land statements, Hawaii travel records, and so on, to sort out the "needy" from the non-welfare types, huh?
Maybe an I did ok opt out form?

For those who really, truly do need a payout, sorry, I am not talking to you, and I am a bit tongue in cheek, so chill before y'all attack. lol

[riders2010]

don t you *** lecture the rest of us 99 percent on how to farm and make assumptions of what we do. You re not being truthful now or in the past about your weather and situation there. But I could care less what you do but starting to get a pretty good idea.
No one here that wants to be living in this century can afford to stay home ride the wife and raise chickens and sheep everyday all day so if you can do that don t change a thing.

The reality is the program is totally screwed. And it needs to be revealed as such. Who s getting the money and who isn t needs to come out. This time around there are enough people hurting that the bullshit is gonna be pushed to get cleaned up.

[freewheat]

Riders, I thought more highly of you than what your words towards me seem to imply.

My main income is grain farming. We supplement with a few other things. This is not a lecture, but simply sharing that we live cheap.

I am not lying. Point at something you feel I am lying about, and I will get back to you on it. Be specific, please, so I can answer your questions clearly. Thanks!

[Cattleman]

riders, have you ever received a CAIS/AgriStability Payment? Do you have a diversified farm?

[RTK]

Boys - take a look at what Freewheat is saying "live within in your means". A lot of the world does not understand this... And there in lies the problem. I am looking at a wreck this year but I have seem them before so I will move forward as best I can. I have not had great crops the last six years - due to flooding - I know wet. I remember 88 as a teenager and the stress level then for dad. I try to farm within my means - there is a lot of equipment and land I want but know it is not feasible for me obtain. If there is a correction I see the opportunity. Highly leveraged operations can make more than me in good times; but leveraging can get ugly pretty fast when you start losing money. Sorry I will accept aid because my competitors will take it but I will not ask for it.

[RTK]

Should read "potential" wreck

[biglentil]

I guess what freewheat is hoping for is the guy that is just scraping by to get wiped out. Maybe some are his neighbours but Im sure he is just fine.

[freewheat]

Believe me, I would be closer to being wiped out than any of my neighbors. lol

I just detest welfare.

[farmaholic]

Farm gas and fuel are subsidized.
Crop insurance premiums are subsidized.
Universal health care.

Use any of the above?