drought 1988 and 2015

[farmaholic]

Yup, 85% of farmers are in it to fail!!!

Its not only the "type" you describe that are in trouble. Lots of young fellows around here trying to make it on their own without old grandpa's money and using a humble line of equipment are going to be in trouble. But I guess somehow it must be their fault it didn't rain.

If you don't want any help, don't take it. Simple.

[freewheat]

Bucket, the things you mention, also make me sick. Very sick. But I still think we need to take some control and some responsibility. Life is not fair. Governments suck.

[freewheat]

I will be fighting AGAINST some stupid bailout, as a young, literally poor compared to most on here farmer, because we need this. We need a dose of reality Western Canada wide, not just a small pocket here and there. We need some pain, to come to the realization, that life is not fair, and we need to plan for contngencies, and not assume we are producing widgets in some factory, under climate controlled conditions.

We NEED a correction. We need a dose of reality. We need to reign in the stupidity in agriculture.

We do not need a bailout. If I go down, I will do something different. I am making other plans for that, while the ones who throw all their eggs in the assumption basket, will beg for government aid.

The era of self responsibility is gone or something. It makes me sick.

If one year of poor weather is all it takes to knock whoever out of the game, so be it, they could have carried crop insurance, and spent LESS than what they are covered for. It is simple.

[riders2010]

Like I said free wheat there s something about your situation you re not telling us. Are you on the government gravy train? Poster boy to get rid of the wheat board. Poor little farmer trying to make it on your own. If you ve been putting inputs and list crops you wouldn't be able to afford stating home raising chickens and chasing sheep. Every family I know if your not a certain amount of acres minimum both are working and the kids just to make a go.

What were you crying about all this wet and now you tell us you have this great coverage? Were you one of those guys that never tried seeding when it was wet? Pretty selfish to sit there with a good crop and say fk all the rest

And as far as a reset wake the fk up there is no reset chineese and walls buddies want all the land they want all of is gone so the swap for oil deals can happen. That is the reality.

[farmaholic]

The plane. The plane... Boss, agriculture has evolved onto a capital intensive business. Why do they come to Fantasy Island to live out their dream? I don't know Tattoo, I guess they're a bunch of stupid morons who drank the kool aid and want to aspire to a better life than their forefathers had, just like the rest of the players in their industry.

[bucket]

Freewheat

This isn't just one bad year.

This is a series of bad years.

2010 was wet - 36 inches of rain.
2011 thru 2014 was in between wet and getting stuck trying to get back on track.

2015 with a dryer basis was to get it back fully. Pretty close I think I got 90 percent seeded again. I told the guy I buy my inputs from if I can average 25 bpa across the board I would be pretty happy considering what I was seeing at the time. I am still losing 25 bpa because my farm will be close to a zero. At 25 bpa I am inputting what my crop insurance covers at the level I chose. So I am guaranteed about 18 bpa because I am on stubble and my average with too wet hasn't increased with crop insurance using a 10 year average.

25 bpa is a pipe dream now. And I really don't want 5 bpa either. It just adds more expense.

But the ground essentially didn't start this year. A reasonable input level was used and it didn't rain. And the guys that got it started are not any further ahead - their crops are baking in the heat and dry.

I think you should look at what happens if this was a normal crop and what your returns would have looked like by now if we were staring down a 20 mmt potential canola crop. Think of the money you would be out had that happened.

I am happy for your potential for this year you deserve it. But realize if everyone produced a crop like in 2013 this year things wouldn't look so rosy for you either.

This drought is so widespread if it gets ignored a whole lot of change will happen. And the experiment may not be to your liking.

Because it means another consolidation to bigger farms and those guys will be guaranteed government support just like the evraz potash gm ford bombardier of the world therefore making your farm either a target or left out.

Don't be quick to destroy your neighbors, the next ones might not be better.

[samhill]

Got to say I'm with Freewheat on this one. With Agri invest and Agri Stability and crop insurance you can't handle the first drought in I don't know how many years, then too much was spent on something that isn't economic. If spent on inputs then this year is summer fallow, but next year should work. Ma Nature has been here every year, and while she always bats last, a farmer has to know she can throw some pretty mean junk. It's not the '30's dust bowl.Many of us make do with low cost equipment and acres that are family oriented. A study out of Iowa showed the most efficient farm size was about 950 acres. So if you swing for the fences, sometimes you strike out. Heck, its easy enough to strike out going for singles and bunts.

[riders2010]

For all the guys that lost crops due to flood or what ever in the last years there is no *** agristability, fk me there wasn t even any then its so fkd up.
but for the people who had 5 bumpers there will be the biggest aid package in history. Don t assume that people suffering all went out and bought new equipment and spend winter in the Bahamas.

I m not talking about the broad ass people although It wouldn t surprise me if they somehow get a a big *** payout and put on the *** application we couldn t seed it was too dry and wait for the check. That's how fk d up this all is.

[bucket]

Broad acre, one earth and others had government connections.

These programs were designed to help those that wanted to find a way to syphon some more money into their pockets without using brown bags or getting appointed to the Senate.

[freewheat]

Riders, it is all about personal choices. We chose not to feel the hot desire to be the best, to be the biggest, to play the game most do. So we do not NEED a bunch of land to make a living. We live cheap. We buckled down HARD during the last awful years. We are building a flock, not on borrowed money, but by keeping back ewe lambs. We did not borrow for machinery to get into sheep, I feed them BY HAND, a tractor never starts all winter.

IF the guys who are in a world of hurt can't handle the financial pain coming, they can sell me their seedmasters with the useless bells and whistles, that their farm HAD TO BUY to be feasible. They can rent out some land they bought at 3000 an acre, that they HAD TO HAVE cuz they aint making it anymore, and besides, what would we ever do if neighbor Bill bought it??? The horror!

I have explained many times: Historically we are in one of the top ten areas for growing canola, so I had some tremendous yields built up. When the wet years hit, if you did not seed, you did not get a ZERO. If you did not make a claim, while others around you did, that helped too.

I will be the first to admit on here, I am hurting financially. I always have been, so I am used to financial constraints. I think that is what may be so confusing for you. I have lived like a peasant my whole life, because of life circumstances, so I know what being efficient means.

And yes, selling a bunch of eggs IS actually helpful, because it puts a lot of the food on the table we do not grow ourselves.

We do not buy fancy campers, we have a 500 dollar enormous tent. We do not buy a boat, we fish from shore. We do not go to Mexico in the winter, we go to the lake with our ice auger.

I bought land when it was economically realistic, not when it wouldn't pencil for 60 years. If I run out of credit in the spring, I do not keep spending on fungicides, etc.

This year, to be cost effective and to save on some inputs, I seeded a bunch of faba beans. CHEAP to grow as heck. Got much less than 100 bucks in that crop. It allows me to max out on the other crops like canola.

I get a bit mystified when someone attempts to call me out. My wife and I choose to live life differently than 99% of the people around us. We choose simplicity. We refuse to cave to the pursuit of STUFF. It is that simple. It can be done. I think it should be done more.

What mystifies me, is farms who do not raise most of their own food. Farms with land and extra grain, that refuse livestock of any kind, because it is oh so smelly, oh so time consuming, and ties you down. THAT is mystifying!