Hot and Dry and Canola prices crash day two!

[riders2010]

Mode of rationing. Hahaha lmfao
There in the mode of stealing what they can now. That's what mode they are in.

[bucket]

Charliep

1988 is only similar in that it hasn't rained.

Half and half farming with wheat being the primary crop and not within a futures markets in canada then and still isn't now.

But the price of wheat was higher then too and if you did an indexed value, like your salary, wheat would be worth 17 bucks right now. Not factoring in the drought.

[farmaholic]

Ok, serious question Charlie. Since I have so much as admitted I don't have a clear understanding of the "functioning" futures market I need advice.

Let's say I have little to no physical canola to sell yet I still want to "participate" in the market. Let's say I have no canola for this example.

How do I get in, what do I need to do and what is it going to cost me, at this stage of the game.

[charliep]

I guess you made it through 2002 unscathed. That year is etched in Alberta farmers minds. A very difficult year but most made it through to farm again in 2003. Pain resulted in a lot of creativity that included finding enough to feed a rather large cow herd.

bucket. You are in a disaster situation. Just curious is you took the variable price option on your Saskatchewan Crop Insurance? Your coverage would a lot higher if you had.

[farmaholic]

ps, I would be certified insane if I thought is was a good idea to preprice any physical canola the way it looks today. If there is anything worth swathing, the next risk will be a wind that scatters the skimpy poorly anchored swath. I can't wait to put 2015 behind me.

[charliep]

You want a futures course. I will make easy. Set up a futures trading account. They will require margin money - good faith money to make sure you can meet the commitments you make on your futures contract. You will also have to provide a net worth/other financial to make sure you can meet their security needs.

Once you set, get long ICE canola or buy calls. Not so hard as speculator.

Most of you guys have taken courses so just a matter of application. Know when you are a hedger (pre-selling growing crop) and a speculator (long futures to take advantage of price improvement on crops you have lost).

[charliep]

I might comment that you actually could be accomplishing the exact opposite of your intent. Convince your export customers you have nothing for sale too early and they will take their business elsewhere where they can book supplies. Canada is not the only source of oilseed. Soybean oil has stalled out at 33 cents/lb. That is why the market would put in summer highs.

A better scenario would be to have production forecasts stay relatively high and have export business continue in short crop year.

To that extend, I like a market with volatility. Futures markets that surge to highs and then follow back only to be rewarded by another rally initiated by commercial demand. A sign of a healthy market.

[SASKFARMER3]

So JW what is the size of crop canola?! Will a rain save what's their? Does Alberta have s horse show up its ass and their crop will be saved!
USA has issues that's a gummy I lived mud and a bumper it doesn't make!
Yes we have a ok one but just 15 north and west it's ending fast!
Do JW show farmers how to bend over and take it!
The grain markets are a joke, and like I said before soy up do to flooding and planting not sure yet known! Well Americans are packing up the drills and calling it a year. Chicago might think different.
Plus your probably one of these genius that think the canola councils goal will help farmers! Or are you part of that group!

[charliep]

SK3

Why do you wake up at 6 every morning and celebrate failure?

[SASKFARMER3]

So their it is thanks Charlie you just confirmed why all Canadian governments in Alberta Sask and Manitoba publish each week bull shit reports so full of miss information their not even funny!
It rained in Regina so wow it's great !