Statistcs Canada Seeded Acreage Estimate

[farmaholic]

Right Errol. And production looks lean around here this year. This will be interesting.

[rockpile]

Totally agree with Errol. The stats reporting period was from May 28th to June 11th. Back then, there was still a lot of optimism on here. Much has changed since then. And it's only a seeded acreage report - nothing to do with yields or with what has taken place since then. And don't forget, not everything is just about the supply side but the demand side as well. And there is a limit to what buyers can afford to pay and when they have no choice but to leave the market. Sheesh!

[bucket]

Errol

What are the ptoduction numbers?

Statscan is still adjusting 2013 results FFS. Won't know 2015 final until 2017.

I can guess pretty well within 10 percent my farms 2015 final production right now.

[bucket]

Those are just rhetorical questions errol to highlight that we really have a ****ed up reporting system in canada.

And I am not blaming you.

Here is the thing. Guys that reseeded have the acre counts done and their cheques already. Crop insurance has that data but it doesn't come into play until when?

There is enough calls in every day to issue a report that says a substantial area of the prairies have a disaster on their hands worse than 88.

Nothing. My tin foil sparks that it's manipulating the market.

[errolanderson]

bucket . . . Nobody knows what the production is pure 'n simple.

Sensing the cash grain price wreck has finally hit a bottom. It will be a more difficult year for grain buyer margins, both cereals and oilseeds. Bullish basis.

[bucket]

Errol.

Sorry but I do know my farms production for 2015. It's pretty shitty like well under 5 bpa and getting closer to zero everyday.

[mcfarms]

I told them the same thing I tell them every time they call, that information is available through AFSC and as a partner in that program I give them permission to negotiate with afsc for that information.
The feds didn't have enough money to properly fund a decent agristability program I dont think they have enough money to have duplication of information gathering to employ a bunch of city people.

[ajl]

This is certainly history and not news and they can save money by canning StatsCan. Summer fallow is nearly extinct was notable.

[westernvicki]

The point is what use is a report that is old news. No reason why we do not adopt the USA model of the farm tour and report. Wonder why they keep this model? Anyone know?

[SASKFARMER3]

This is why it's time to get rid of this useless reporting.
All winter I said durum would be up along with lentil and peas.
Canola would be down and soy.
Flax would be up.
No mention growing conditions, drought etc.
Again useless useless useless.
But hey welcome to Canada.

[TOM4CWB]

A BIG Conspiracy!!! Tin Foil hats needed!!! Gov manipulation???!!!

Any one who actually matters... has satellite (vegetation) and rainfall maps to determine crop production. The base line of what is here... can be calibrated down to the 1/4 section level. Until then this is an average numbers estimate which is all the StatsCan June 30 report ever claimed to be. No deception. No conspiracy. I can feel a Weird Al song... Aluminium Foil required! Cheers!

[TOM4CWB]

Farma,

"Know not no...."

Word Crimes...

Fun Ti

[Rareearth]

Come on guys.
Fact:
- no one gives the right numbers to stats can, why would they? There is no teeth or accountability with this current system. Farmers view it as a chance to move the market (or screw it) one way or the other
- I just filled out my crop insurance forms, where I report which crops, number acres,and the variety the accuracy is within .1%. It has to be. They audit, I pay premiums on it, payouts- coverage those numbers are used for hail insurance, my crop and farm planning etc.
-,these numbers are submitted by June 25. Any one can get the real numbers, might have to pay for them but crop insurance has the real numbers
- all the analyst or trade guessing prior to this is "guessing" for what ever reason.
- not every one is in crop insurance yes. But the number is stable and predictable, (80%??)farmers don't jump in and out of this program

- then in November on my production declaration I report the tons harvested, fertilizer used, etc. these are are real numbers no guessing required, yes they have to be factored to reflect those who don't have crop insurance(80% crop insurance enrolment rate?)

It would be interested to have a study where all the companies,analysts and stats can., guesses are charted to what the real numbers are, - to see what patterns emerge