Has Canola topped for now?

[TOM4CWB]

I see these comments this morning:

Canola has been firmer from the start in overnight action. Palm oil is lower, European ****seed and soybeans are mixed, soy oil and meal are firmer. The Canadian dollar is down about fifteen one hundreds of a cent against the U.S. dollar this morning. It looks like trading could be choppy
today as traders appear to be reluctant to trade too aggressively until they have a firm opinion on the size of this year's crops.

BULL SIDE
1) The Canadian dollar is back on the defensive against the U.S. dollar this morning, holding just above $.77.
2) Canola has been weak relative to
soy recently, reducing talk that canola is expensive relative to other vegetable oils; which reduced the premium to other vegetable oils.
3) Though crop conditions in western Canada have improved in many areas, Some argue that the recent rain has been too little, too late, to have much effect on total canola production.

BEAR SIDE
1) Ample soy crop largely due to the huge South American/world soy supply, will compensate for any shortage in the Canadian canola crop.
2) There are reports of improving crop conditions in western Canada; crop concerns have definitely eased for now.
3) Canola continues to hold above key
support levels on the price charts if support is violated, the selling could build on itself since prices may have topped for now.

[SASKFARMER3]

On the drive from Regina up to Saskatoon one thing is for sure. Later seeded Canola has a second life in that strip. The early bird has shit. But after Saskatoon to Battleford it drops off quite quick.
North of Davidson also drops quick. So maybe for now the canola crop has stabilized but Canola north of us that was reseeded is now just starting to bolt and flower. Can you say late and not sure if it will make it.
Lots on the drive also is finished flowering and filled in but not a bumper by any stretch of the imagination. Just a bill payer for now.

[LEP]

I agree that the crop has bounced alittle from recent showers. Like SF3 says not a bumper by any means but should be a bill payer.

[SASKFARMER3]

What I seen on the drive up and actually stopped and looked at some fields the late ones that caught the showers have potential. Early seeded that were hurt will fill what little is their and that is all. Thin ones wont get better. Late seeded needs till October with no frost. But rain in July saved Sask crop insurance a lot of money. A lot.

[sumdumguy]

Farmer cutting 90 day lentils east of Regina.

[ado089]

I'm worried that the top is in for now. Weather has stabilized in most regions of NA. Basis has narrowed a touch for August but new crop is what I would call normal. All other commodity prices are taking it on the chin. China, Greece and poor economic growth closers to home. I have a pretty large long position and I have $512 in mind as the number to cut it loose at.

[crusher]

Yes the top is in....until it is surpassed. When was the last time we had an early frost?

[furrowtickler]

That was 2004 - should be still in the memory of everyone on here.
I still remember the sask crop report two days later - Terri Berdart said "there might have been light patchy frost is a few isolated areas "
Lol- most likely it was the most damaging and costly frost in western Canadian history a few of us on here said . I wounder who fed her that report - that was very strange