Ag Canada Lowers 2015-16 Forecasts has it stabalized or will it be lower?

[SASKFARMER3]

Production Ending Stocks
15/16 15/16 14/15 15/16 15/16 14/15
Jul 21 Jun 18 Jul 21 Jun 18
All Wheat 27.100 29.700 29.281 4.300 4.900 6.700
Durum 5.200 5.700 5.193 0.800 1.000 1.000
Barley 6.900 7.940 7.119 0.500 0.950 1.000
Corn 12.180 12.230 11.487 1.000 1.200 1.500
Oats 3.200 3.760 2.908 0.700 1.050 0.575
Canola 14.300 14.925 15.555 0.500 0.500 0.950
Flaxseed 0.950 0.920 0.847 0.150 0.125 0.100
Soybeans 5.800 5.450 6.049 0.275 0.225 0.300
Total 70.789 75.285 73.594 7.465 8.995 11.168

They have canola at 14.3 Im still thinking 13.9 but its just a number. Late looks awesome that caught the rain in Saskatchewan and reseeded Man production but will it make it is the Billion Dollar question.

[westernvicki]

Peas are a mess, blasted flowers and low seed count in existing pods.. my guess is we can blast 30% of average yield, putting averages closer to 20 than 30 which was used last. Whats' the number this time.

[boarderbloke]

Surprised barley dropped so much, also surprised durum hasn't dropped more.

[boarderbloke]

westernvicki, do quality concerns come into play here under those conditions? After the pea plants suffer the heat and blast, will the plant start to flower again if rains and cooler temps arrive(as SF3 was mentioning rains helping later canola)
Is it possible to have such a wide range of maturity on the same plant, that quality concerns come into play? Or after a plant endures the heat and blast, will the plant just shut down and fill what it has? Just talking peas here.

[SASKFARMER3]

Little thin short peas at show yesterday in Stoon you could pour water on them with a five gallon pail and they still would be shit.
Peas shutting down all over except field that is irrigated by black strap. That's nice.

[furrowtickler]

How was the day yesterday s/f ??
I should be there today but not driving 5 hrs one way .

[ado089]

The heat this week will trim some yield on the late canola. There will be way more crops closed to 25 than 35. I think folks have their yellow blinders on right now. Of all crops wheat has taken the biggest shit kicking. Most fields ive snooped around in one have around 25 heads per square foot and the heads are only 8-12 spikes. Both those numbers should be double.

[furrowtickler]

Have you been out my way ado ?

I am not sure what to think or how it will turn out

[newguy]

Quality durum stocks left may be nice to know.if harvest issues this fall prices on 1 and 2 durum will be jumping up fast.

[ado089]

Furrow, I was at the lake on the weekend. Didn't get off the highway though. The salinity is so bad from Hamlin north now that it's hard to tell what's going on. My feeling is that the fields that got those showers/rains in early June will do very well. Everything else will be 2/3 of normal. Late canola will need another rain to fill in a lot of places. Frost has got to be a concern for some as well.

[bgmb]

Manitoba is relatively small but we are set up for a bumper crop in many areas

[ado089]

I was talking with a couple of hobby farmers neighbors yesterday and they are still talking 50 canola and 75 wheat north of hwy 40

[furrowtickler]

Ya it's possible south and east of me - they have had decent rain lately and some very good canola that never froze earlier on. I have seen some of it and it was very good

[furrowtickler]

Plus it has been looked after right from the start - those guys don't disappear to the lake for three weeks in June or early July .

[SASKFARMER3]

It's a good show has potential if farmers attend! Good concept! Yea it was a 5 am on road day till late last night! But sun is up and what a drive!