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Canola are the crushers running on empty!

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    Canola are the crushers running on empty!

    Found a few things this last month interesting. It doesn't matter if your over a hour early to dump at crusher ahead of your scheduled time. Their is no long line ups like in early spring. Guys are taking longer to get back so must be cleaning bin bottoms.
    So my guess is stats Canada is incorrect with their carry out of Canola for 2014 crop. It is the cupboard is bare. A few have some sitting in bins for insurance but my guess is most have swept the floor. Then today the CWB comes out with their yield estimate.
    CWB is projecting Canadian canola output will take a major hit from dry Prairie conditions this year, says a story from Syngenta Farm.
    CWB pegged the 2015 crop at just 12.18 million tonnes in a supply-demand table released via the Market Research Services’ Twitter account on Wednesday.
    The projection is below a previous CWB estimate of 12.6 million to 13 million tonnes, which was released as part of the June 25 Pool Return Outlook report. It’s also well below an updated Agriculture Canada estimate of 14.3 million tonnes that was released on Tuesday.
    I have production a little higher than the 13 close to 13.8 if and a big if the late seeded canola can make it without a frost.
    So who is telling the truth in the Canola game, or is it a big hush so the crushers can get the last seed in before the real shit show hits.
    I still think yields have been over estimated the last few years in the big new Canola area. Just a little.
    Time will tell but will be interesting to see who has a better handle on what's happening out their the Farmer or Stats can or Industry.

    #2
    "Canola are the crushers running on empty!"

    Most are not. With Cargill opening their 2.5MMT/yr new crush plant in Camrose AB last week... the basis squeeze will be next spring in our central AB country.

    3" of rain here in July now... early Canola finished bloom short on blooming time at least 50 percent. that could transfer to 50 percent of normal crop. Later seeded is very happy... now very yellow... loves this 22C temp and showers! Will be Aug 15 canola harvest start on early crops... at least 2 wks early... which means crushers will have plenty of supply early this season!

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      #3
      NDVI Imagery will be similar to other years. I hope they ground truth and adjust off of that. Canola is waist high, or less on average, easy compared to other years to walk through, then to count the blanks and shorter pods, factor in the seed weight. Looks good to awesome from the road and from the air, but...
      We will have to wait until the combines start rolling, forecast is for normal heat and moisture next week.

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        #4
        NDVI Imagery will be similar to other years. I hope they ground truth and adjust off of that. Canola is waist high, or less on average, easy compared to other years to walk through, then to count the blanks and shorter pods, factor in the seed weight. Looks good to awesome from the road and from the air, but...
        We will have to wait until the combines start rolling, forecast is for normal heat and moisture next week.

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          #5
          Crushers will be facing tough processing margins over the next year.
          Canola export business may be well down on the worsening Asian recession.

          The entire Canadian canola engine will be smaller. This market environment will create come 'n go basis premiums.

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            #6
            I'm thinking the same as Tom. Most are not. Crush capacity utilization has been below year to date average for a number of weeks.(Except for this past week).
            Quite likely the crusher's programs are winding down till new crop comes on line.

            Still a lot better situation basis-wise than last year at this time. Looks like some good demand from crushers for first part of August.
            End of crop year producer stocks will be a lot lower for sure, but still look for that clean-out-the-bins surge the last week of July.

            Charts of interest
            <a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1211.photobucket.com/albums/cc421/farming101/Percent%20Canola%20to%20Process%20Elevators%20from %20other%20sources_zps2ef30siu.jpg" border="0" alt=" photo Percent Canola to Process Elevators from other sources_zps2ef30siu.jpg"/></a>

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              #7
              WHOOPS! Clavet widened basis for August today....

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                #8
                Played ball with the clavet crew last week. They were turning 4400mt a day.

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                  #9
                  Played ball with the clavet crew last week. They were turning 4400mt a day.

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                    #10
                    Clavet is probably still taking April contracts as Cargill usually can't get their shit together!

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                      #11
                      Rumor is they are procuring canola from another grain company for the crush, so they are probably current.
                      Our contracts were picked up on time, save one which somehow got lost between the office and trucking company.

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