Prices Going Forward

[bigzee]

Friend of mine, which some of you know who contributes to this site is not all bullish on all commodities. He toured the southern part of Sask, and stopped at my farm to discuss his findings. With big increases in lentils and durum acres, prices may struggle to attain levels we would think they should be at after a yr like this.
Sure, prices are above historical levels, but one would expect prices to keep rising somewhat.
The large increase in acres are going to make up for lost production.

[SASKFARMER3]

Durum lots went in and our area if it makes it will have very high production. Southern parts that seeded a little later will have good production. The rest is ok with some rain now but no big woop. So yes on Durum if the frost stays away will not go up much.
Peas late has potential but early is set, lots of acreage but our area as a example all cut down on crop they use to seed do to too wet. Other dry areas increased so my thinking is yields are set and volume wont be that big, this one maybe has potential for a 9.25 that's all and no one is really giving farmers their extra 30%.
Lentils are a good crop every where and I mean every where that got a rain. Look for prices to soften.
Flax lots went in but really not to many that are looking excellent some ok but very few excellent. So lots of volume because of size of seeded area but time will tell.
Canola the west was where the extra acreage came in Our area and Manitoba just seeded the same as usuall so East sask and man will have a good one. Wink wink but the area that's dry No so much. Thin stands you can run through don't give yield. Its not a total wipe out but not great.
So maybe a increase to 12 to 13 if dollar and china gets their shit together. Basis is going to be spot here sell, spot here pass on buy.
Wheat is looking good and I think quality if you can get should pay but when they use Min at $5.50 and don't give farmer $6.50 can they will take your wheat and you will not see a rise at all.

[bigzee]

Any late durum in my area isn't good!!! Very thin and short, course guys that seeded it is going to have the best crop ...... ya of course it will.
Canola is garbage, hutts have big acres seeded, my guess 25-30.

[jethro456]

Durum prices will be based on the quality of the crop coming off. A lot was grown this year in non traditional areas, where disease could be a major issue.

[GOODRUM]

Oats seem to be a dead horse, can't seem to move at all.
Any predictions on the other specialty crops?
Seems to be a bit of canary around but looks weak but has the bids have crept up lately.

[bigzee]

The guy I talked about on top is bullish on canary.
Wish same could be said about green peas, sitting on 20k old crop.

[sumdumguy]

With special crops, prices will skyrocket if harvest is delayed because with big acres we can be sure there are huge forward sold contracts. Pressure to supply will dictate prices. We've seen it many times over the years. What do you think the pressure will be on peas? (With 15 bushel stands and 30 bushel contracts.) Time will tell! That's my take.

[cottonpicken]

Worried about the macro the whole commoditie complex is in free fall

[sumdumguy]

cotton, whats the backgound for your worry?

[JDGreen]

#2 13 px durum bid at $11.00 yesterday. If durum quality is an issue expect this number to be explosively higher come November. Seen this game so many times with durum it's laughable. Lentils are shit to great. Average at best. There is a monster lentils growing area that will produce very little. Add in the extra seeded acres and do the math does not equal any type of over production. Lentils remain strong count on it. Yellow peas bid at $9.25 off the combine already.. Things that make you go hmmmmm. Got Simpsons news letter and price forecast this week. First thing I do is check to see if the paper is soft enough to wipe my ass with. It wasn't so threw it in garbage. These companies and their market forecasts are all bullshit. Their in it for themselves first and give a shit about the producer.

[MBgrower]

I think us corn and bean crops will get bigger,and big wheat yield in n.dakota. as cotten said, other macro conditions has me thinking the top was in a week or so ago.

[bigzee]

Totally agree with your last sentence JD. CWB estimated canola at 12.5, little up from their previous guess after tours. Durum at 4.2, that's a signal to me big prices are ahead. IMO

[wmoebis]

We will only get what THEY want us to get!
Why have wheat prices been dropping ever since the CWB tour?