Texas Hedge

[crusher]

Looks like its time to buy Kansas wheat according to the daily and weekly charts. Who's with me?

[ado089]

I'm on mobile so don't have great charts. What technicals are you using? Stk is ugly and we're below the moving average on a down trend. Daily chart is a little better.

[ado089]

Sorry, daily looks way better.

[farming101]

Not yet. My motto-the market is merciless.
Open interest rising on this major downtrend says to me it isn't done yet.
Looks like the 52 week low could fall, then who knows?
Sorry to be the contrarian.

[crusher]

September daily about as low as its been. Triple bottom if you ignore the $4.95 made in May.

On the weekly its touching the bottom of the up trend line.

[farming101]

Crusher, do you look at the weekly nearest or the weekly contract?
Weeky nearest does show a nice support line but it charts the activity of three different contracts during that upturn.
The weekly contract chart is not quite as clear.

[biglentil]

Go long commodities paper is in trouble, cracks going large.

[crusher]

Weekly nearby. I try not to over think. One can justify any opinion through a myriad of signals. I might be right, might be wrong, but sometimes you have to make a move. Did I sell any canola over $525 - nope. Froze up even though I've got a 35-40 bushel crop coming. Did I sell some Kansas wheat a couple weeks ago over $6 - yes. Feed wheat last week for $6.75 - yes. Sometimes you get lucky. I think I'm right more than 50% of the time but make a move closer to 25% of the time. Still have some old crop hard red and canola left. About 20% sold new crop canola and peas. Nothing on wheat.

[farming101]

If your short Kansas from 6 plus that changes the view.

[TOM4CWB]

Crusher, Unless you believe the US will go back to floods... $500 Canola hedged will be better than $460 Nov 2016 trading already? Nov 2016 headed for 420?

Still way better than last winter @ $420!