Let chaff rise to top.....surely there is more to add to this topic

[oneoff]

SASKFARMER3 Reply posted Jul 22, 2015 8:08
Concerns grew over the quality of US soft red winter wheat, with some termed by officials of such poor calibre "it is not able to be sold", thanks to rains which continued to delay harvesting of the grain.

US farmers had harvested 75% of their winter wheat crop as of Sunday, a rise of 10 points week on week, the US Department of Agriculture said.

While a little behind the advance of 11 points that investors had expected, the figure took the progress above the average, of 74%, for the first time this season, which has been noted for rains which after affecting initially the southern Plains hard red winter wheat region has provoked notable setbacks in Midwest soft red winter wheat country.

Indeed, the overall harvest figure disguised a sharp difference in progress between southern Plains states, such as Kansas and Oklahoma, where farmers are about on track with harvesting and Midwest states such as Indiana and Ohio where growers are notably behind.

By contrast, farmers in the US North West, in Oregon and Washington, have made an unusually rapid start to harvesting of their mainly white winter wheat crop, thanks to unusually dry weather which is continuing to take a toll on crop condition.

'Scab, sprouting and mould'

The wet Midwest weather has, besides slowing harvesting, prompted increasing concerns over quality, with moisture on ripe grain encouraging sprouting, and lowering protein levels, besides fostering disease.
'Not able to be sold'
"Some wheat that has been harvested, has had low test weights, high levels of vomitoxin, and very high moisture content."

Quality specs

The comments follow a harvest report on Friday from US Wheat Associates, which promote US wheat exports, which highlighted declines in some quality measures, prompting latest samples to be graded 3 rather than the 2 the previous week.

"The low test weight value in the composite sample graded this week reduced the average grade to a No 3," the group said, albeit adding that "grade data is still very preliminary".

The test weight came in at 56.9 pounds per bushel (74.9 kilogrammes per hectolitre) compared with an average of 58.1 pounds per bushel (76.5 kilogrammes per hectolitre) for last season's crop, which was itself of modest quality.

Protein levels, at 11.4% dry basis, are actually running above the 11.2% final result for last year's crop, although levels can be supported by wet weather, as occurred with the UK's deluge-affected 2012 harvest, which ranked low on other quality parameters.

Price debate

There are mixed ideas on the impact of the poor quality harvest on futures prices, with some investors seeing support for values of grain able to make the grade for delivery against Chicago futures.

However, at Chicago broker RJ O'Brien, Richard Feltes, noting "reports of dismal soft red winter wheat quality across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio", flagged pressure on prices from a "dismal" outlook for export demand for the grain.

The growing proportion of soft red winter wheat used as feed is also likely to undermine values, in particular in comparison with corn.

"Look for December wheat futures to erode further versus December corn even though the spread is historically narrow, the low $1.20s a bushel area," Mr Feltes said.

"The wheat market will be forced to track even lower to buy feed demand away from corn."

So if were based on Min and wheat crop is feed and shit how will the price of Canadian wheat compare. A 4 USA min will the Canadian #1 be a plus 3 or 5 basis or will the grain companies take your hard earned quality and pay you 4 a bushel for it. Ah will be interesting but I am guessing the grain companies will win again thanks to the USA market.
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LEP Reply posted Jul 22, 2015 8:34
I sold most of my durum to three different companies from the US this year. They are all trying to get a toehold in the market here.

Anyway, I get one merchant who calls me weekly to discuss the crop and conditions. Pillowtalk really.

I guess he really didn't believe the extent of our dryness up here and the last call he was telling me what the crop is going to do." We expect the volume to be down, but the quality to be excellent." I said not a chance. Areas that have been dry have 3 crops coming and there will be a bunch of shrivelled and immature green kernels in the sample. Then I suggested he should get out of the office and take a trip to see what things are like because he might be a little shocked.
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SASKFARMER3 Reply posted Jul 22, 2015 8:43
The two/three stage in crop will be a challenge and I also agree guys should get out of the office and take a drive. Also stop and walk in fields really does wake one up. But a 120kmph crop tour with smoked glass windows doesn't really work.
Farmers understand what harvest challenges are going to be with this years crop. Canola flowereing and dead all in same row. Wheat grass green to dead in a 100ft.
Ah yea it wont be a challenge. Smooth sailing nothing to see here.
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ajl Reply posted Jul 24, 2015 8:55
That will be the biggest challenge is two crops a month (at least) apart in maturity in the same field. What makes it worse is the standing green crop has moisture so it is in no hurry. The ripe crop will be flat on the ground in a month from now when they can get in and harvest.
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[farmaholic]

What is it you are looking for?

[oneoff]

It's quite possible that there is a real industry fear that there are quality concerns of US winter wheat crop being basically unfit for consumption.

I suspect that the reason one gets personal attention from even USA grain companies is that they are uncharacteristically keen to line up those who might commit the high quality grain supplies in current storage; or those who are willing to go all in and commit top grades prior to harvest and not knowing what harvest season will deliver in the way of weather cooperation.

Now what surprises at least some readers is how important marketing topics gather such a low response rate from farm producers.

Is it because producers are in denial; is it because reports of low test weights; fuzz in food supplies are not important or germane to coffe shop discussion ; or just why is there not some wider spread discussion on topics such as this that are brought before the readers. If you look at history as recent as last falls durum harvest....there are lessons that should have been learned. When Mother Nature deteriorates contracted grains prices that in best quality would have earned say $8.50 per bushel; and when there are discounts and penalties from having to replace those commitments at say $12.00 or more per bushel...the result was that even savy producers ended up disposing their distressed product at a net price of around $2.00 per bushel. No wonder those people who have suffered such an experience don't want to talk about such tales....but at least they and all others should do everything possible to save the farming community from repeats of the same experiences. Such however does not seem to be the case; and I'd be interested to know if that worries an ordinary producer and what is being done to prevent such occurances again.j

Food ingredient quality does have its lower limits before some blending from better quality supplies is inevitable.

Are we iin Western Canada not set up for not benefiting from drought stressed severely or at least slightly reduced yields in many western prairie regions ...which may yet not be harvested in ideal conditions...to not be marketable at prices that return a good profit above and beyond the cost of production.

[Hopalong]

Agree that trade agreements and promotion are an area where prairie growers do not put enough pressure on politicians and governments.
An example is Canadian Federation of Agriculture support for supply management at the expense of export opportunity.
Wheat and barley growers have gone half way with the end of wheat board as a state trading agency, time to go the rest of the way with end to supply management.

[farmaholic]

Please make your point with fewer words.

Marketing failures are like huge gambling losses, no one talks about them. We only hear of the successes.

Last year a neighbor sold his whole "fusarium laden" wheat crop in the fall for sub $4. Probably on the "advice" of a grain co marketing rep. Won't hear much about that.

I refuse to presell wheat without knowing what it will be graded as, the combinations of factors affecting the grade and protien possibilites and too specific contract specifications without premiums and discounts written into the contract leave me with all the risk of being possibly over penalized for not meeting contract specs or not properly rewarded for exceeding contract specs.

As well, someone mentioned on here how a producer could be "all in" or 100% priced on what he thought was a "conservative" 25% of expected production with little hope of participating in a market rally by just selling his physical production. Without having to gamble at the Futures and Options Casino.....

[Guest]

agreed hopefully people on here will tell stories of how badly they got screwed this year and last so people will realize the insane amount of risk they are assuming and not just bragging about pricing grain a few cents higher than the market we hear lots of those stories