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Where will the rains go... East of West?

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    Where will the rains go... East of West?

    Spotty W. Canada Rain
    Some Prairie Areas Miss Out on Beneficial Rains

    Joel Burgio Telvent DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist
    Bio | Email
    Thu Jul 23, 2015 01:48 PM CDT
    Significant rains have occurred during the most recent seven-day period through some of the driest areas of the Western Canadian Prairies. Large sections of Alberta and portions of Saskatchewan saw at least moderate rains and in some cases heavy rainfall during the period. This likely means at least some improvement in crop conditions for areas that received the heaviest of this rainfall. This was especially helpful for parts of southern and western Alberta that has been so dry during this growing season.


    Large sections of Alberta and portions of Saskatchewan saw at least moderate rainfall and in some cases heavy rainfall in the last week. (DTN photo by Elaine Shein)
    However, even with this beneficial rainfall the region still runs well-below normal for the season and in some cases the rain totals during this past week did not even bring the 30-day rainfall up to normal levels. In any case, the rains were needed and should help somewhat.
    ...The current upper level pattern over the United States and Canada points towards a set-up that could bring another significant rain event to the Canadian Prairies. The ridge position is currently over the south-central U.S. region and showing signs of shifting a little to the east into the Mississippi River Valley during the next five to seven days. As this occurs, a strong upper level low is expected to slide southward over the western part of Canada. This low then moves east across the Canadian Prairies or the Northern Plains of the U.S., but is slowed down by the ridging over the Mississippi River Valley. This slower-moving upper level trough and its resulting surface storm should mean significant rains for the Canadian Prairies probably during the timeframe of later this weekend or early next week.

    The rains associated with this system would be highly beneficial if they occurred through southwest and central areas, as this region still runs well-below normal for the seasonal rainfall to date. However, if the rain hits the eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba area, it would be neutral at best and could be unfavorable if it leads to flooding in an area that has already had some issues with heavy rainfall during the season.

    The current thinking supports the more easterly track on this low, but there is some uncertainty in this outlook. This system will be watched to determine its potential to bring either beneficial rains to the western growing areas or flooding rains to the eastern locations.

    (ES)

    © Copyright 2015 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.

    #2
    Going east. Will hit SE Alberta and sask and Manitoba. Harvesting cereals has even started in SE Alberta and I'm sure SE sask. Lots of pulses ready. This rain is too late and will probably be just as harmful and beneficial. These grain traders look out their window on Manitoba thinking it's getting wet out when Manitoba is maybe 10% of all proclduction. Back to $11 canola and soybeans at $10. 1.3 on the dollar? Question. At port in a boat what is a bus of soybeans worth and what is a bus of canola worth?

    Comment


      #3
      vvalk,

      Good thing the crushers have enough capacity to crush the whole crop without export! Basis should be great later in the year! We could use another rain in the north... a good 50 percent of the Canola came back in bloom! Will be very interesting to see how it finishes out!

      Comment


        #4
        You all know where this storm is headed. Was this crop that was coming to good to be true. I hope it misses us but 85mm and we're back to swamp.

        Comment


          #5
          Come on SF3! Rain makes grain! Share the rain! lol

          Comment


            #6
            Lot of ripe peas 15-20 bu/ac with a green canopy of sow thistle above it now. They will be a total loss after 20-30 mm more rain. Roundup in cool damp weather will take 3 weeks to kill the green while the ripe peas pop the zipper. Rain now is more harm than good in S AB

            Comment


              #7
              Actually your right rain now is a total shit show for this years crop.

              Comment


                #8
                Weather network calling for 2" of rain Monday through Tuesday.

                If it's a slow rain it will provide a net benefit for the canola that is still flowering.

                I will pray for no more hail.

                Comment


                  #9
                  My 2nd, 3rd, and 4th(finally germinated july 10th) growth will love this forecasted rain provided we are frost free to late october...

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Just south of Edmonton....declared a disaste4r and hasn't stopped raining since. Just seeded some barley and rye, for forage, and may look like a genius....but could have easily been labelled an idiot....

                    Comment


                      #11
                      All of you can grow up. Especially you SF3.. A couple inches of rain and your ducked ??? Come on saskfarmer you already have one of the best crops in western Canada and your still whining??? Getting old buddy...... I'm hoping for the first couple inches this year and I have peas that are ready to cut this wednesday. Hoping so i don't have to possibly go thru burning down the country when I harvest. I could give a shit what you wet ******s whine about water..... Try drought and see how that feels.. You don't hear me crying and I have multiple 1/4 that haven't seen 1.5"'in the last 14 months.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Ouch Jd. Keeping a positive attitude can be my biggest hurdle. Negatively kills me and I can be quite negative myself. I have consciously decided to try to look for silver linings in the clouds of adversity.

                        That being said, I reserve my right to bitch and moan, cry and whine and rant and rave.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          I started desiccating today. Short and poorly knit together. If there is going to be a monsoon I sure hope those runty ****ers stay semi erect (lol), otherwise scraping them off the ground won't be fun because there wont be much to grab at. Silver lining: adding some possible moisture to the reserve bank, heaven knows there has been a huge withdrawl this year.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Actually your right rain now is a total shit show for this years crop.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Ha ha ouch!

                              Comment

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