bear trap?

[ado089]

Did we just see an exhaustion gap? We could be in for a slow trip back up to July highs for the August usda report. If China doesn't fall over and crush us.

[TOM4CWB]

ado,

Is there something in the fundamental news to cause the reversal up? Technicals? Turn around Tuesday will be interesting... how many spins will the market take!!! Where it lands will probably tell the tale.

[ado089]

Has anything fundamentally changed enough to warrant a 10% sell off in the last few day? Is the trend dead or did we just close the gap? My feeling is this was a liquidity scare caused by macros. Could be risky to chase this market down from here.

[farming101]

Could be. Looks like some positions being retired. Increased volume. A good setup.

[vvalk]

Ado. Could agree more. This canola crop despite toms glass half full comments is not very big as I said on a previous post even the good crops there is way to much aborting even before the heat hit. Crops just aren't there. Maybe some later stuff will slow the real low canola prod number. That all being said the traders may just take this down to wherever they feel it needs to go. Money does have to go some where. If the markets are selling off the that cash needs to go somewhere. I don't believe the soy crop is very big. Way too much rain there early on. Thinned out the crop big time. Not sure about corn as much. Seeded earlier so may be ok

[TOM4CWB]

ado,

Demand has changed. China has a cold.

[ado089]

I get that but in the back of my mind I can't help but wonder who goes on a diet when the Shanghai composite sells off?

[wilagro]

Sheesh, all of you amateur financial gurus are giving me a sour stomach.

Never have I seen so many know-it-alls in all of my born days. Everyone is an expert trader, investor and buyer and seller of stocks, bonds, commodities, etc.

What happened to the old dumb farmer who just grew grain and sold it at the local elevator and happily took his cheque to the bank, paid off his loans and his STORE BILL and gave what was left to his wife to buy a few staples and maybe a trinket or treat for the kiddies?

Today's way is progress I guess but it seems to make a lot of people grumpy and fearful of what next week or next month will bring.

[farming101]

I couldn't help laughing. Isn't this the Commodity Marketing room?

[ado089]

RSI bottomed out and is pointed up after today. Still below bollinger band and I like to believe the prices tend to pull back into that range. Fast STK crossed over. Glimmers of hope if you look hard enough. The old highs may be far fetched but 520 where this mess started shouldn't be off the table.

[ado089]

Any thoughts from those more versed in charts and technicals?

[farming101]

Not even a novice; good reasons to think things can stabilize in this range which would allow RSI to float up to 50. That may encourage some new buying. Probably won't happen any time soon.
End of year canola bin sweeping will probably result in more small weakness as graincos hedge.

Bean oil chart doesn't look too great. Any more weakness would have specs lightening up some more-bad news for canola.
Today, my take is don't look for a runup anytime soon. Maybe for stability in here.