Early Red River ND Yield Results! Disapointing!

[SASKFARMER3]

Now to us guys that don't farm in Paradise the yields look wow, But if your farming in ND in The Red and your yields are 45 to 60 for spring wheat life just isn't going to pencil out.
On line chats forums and calls to friends down their, one thing is for certain the HRS crop of 2015 wont be a big as most farmers anticipated going into the harvest.
So this has me thinking, the USDA had Spring wheat up from other years and all in Canada are saying that rain makes grain, plus Russia and Europe were dry when we were so. If their disappointed and harvest has began what will Canada come out with. Similar results not what we thought or Wow did the Wheat improve and make a great crop.
From what I have seen in some areas that were dry it will be the Not what thought. Frost and Second growth will be a problem for the late HRS and the fields that were really dry do have second growth coming now.
What are others seeing. Who also agrees with me the USDA and some of these crop Estimators really don't know Jack shit or play the market.

[SASKFARMER3]

"I think the entire rrv started harvest today or yesterday, and early returns are a bit below expectations for yield. I'm hearing quite a bit of 70s and 60s, haven't heard an 80 yet which surprises me.

From what I observed off the combine,the tillers just aren't there. The volatile may we had was just to stressful I guess.

Not to say we probably won't still have a bunch of wheat around, but at least the very early returns don't have us positioned to absolutely tear the skin off the ball".

Simply if your use to 75 to 80 and your at 60 or less that's a $100.00 an acre less than you thought or on a 1000 acre wheat farm $100,000.00 less than you thought. Or basically your yield is down by a 1/3 from usual but the USDA is saying its a large crop.

[SASKFARMER3]

Argentina's 2015/16 wheat crop is forecast down at 10.2 million tonnes, reports the USDA attache. That's 1.3 million lower than the latest official USD estimate. This is a result of an adjusted smaller area as the crop is unprofitable in most cases and to a lesser use of inputs.

[tweety]

Crop failure at 60 bpa, that's pretty funny.

[sawfly]

my only comment here is there is not a lot of hard red planted here this year.
2/3 to 3/4 of acres are soft white spring.
and you can see right thru most fields
as the leaves fall off.

there is some wheat there, but how much?

[SASKFARMER3]

My comment is the USDA plays games with Numbers and Farmers say it like it is. If it was a awesome crop you would be hearing 90 plus for wheat like the year Canada had a huge Canola crop, you had to have better than the neighbour even if you used Under ground bins for storage.

[farmaholic]

60 bpa here is a bumper. Why do I farm here?

[Nudge]

Also find that USDA and Statscan regularly have to increase previous years production because we consume and export more than produced. Not sure that talking up the market on agriville does a lot. lol

[SASKFARMER3]

First time I visited their I asked the same question. Why did relatives not stop walking north and stay their.
But if 60 is a bumper here try thinking you had a 60 and your combining a 40 or thinking you have a 50 and its 30 or hoping you have a 40 to pay bills and its almost 20.
The reality is their yield isn't even close to what the USDA had projected.

[farmaholic]

Here it will be half of "normal". Peas verified it already. Like someone said, you can see a long way into the wheat crop and canola is a bit of a joke. Flax is short and not a.pkle bolls. I've heard of some 8 bu/ac lentils in the area.

I don't think there will be any pleasant surprises in this area, just expected disappointments.

[SASKFARMER3]

Nudge not talking up the markets just stating what I am hearing about yield. If farmers are disappointed then maybe the USDA is wrong or out of touch.

[SASKFARMER3]

I am starting to kind of think the same. Canola maybe grew tall like a weed but did it pod right. Late is late. I think it will be a year you start combining and first field is like wow 55 then move a mile south and its like WTF 33 then move East and its I can live with that then move West and its Could be in a crop insurance claim with the acres we have over here.
Time will tell.

[farming101]

USDA estimates for ND spring wheat are 48 bpa so there is room for the western part of the state to turn in some lousy yields and still make the estimate.
I agree on canola. With the huge difference in crop quality and staging across the prairies there is no way of knowing what we have till harvest.
Locally the big rains did more good than harm for canola. Raised estimate 10-20 percent.

[malleefarmer]

all my years of market watching and all the years of usda reports and estimates seems to me in the wash up there actually never more than 5 to 10% out either way