August USDA Report

[charliep]

Just a highlight that today is a USDA report day. It is the first survey based yield estimates for 2015 US corn and soybeans. Given the red in the futures market, I suspect you know the markets interpretation. Having said, the outside events around the yuan devaluation/world financial markets are likely have more impact and a greater source of instability down the road.

[URL="http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf"]WASDE[/URL]

Will let you guys discuss. Hopefully Moe and Errol provide some ideas.

[errolanderson]

Charlie . . . think you retired just in time.

[SASKFARMER3]

I'll say it again the USDA is full of shit! Always are always will be!
Flooded soy ain't coming back similar with corn! But hey it's the USA much like alberta everything is all right!

[fjlip]

Thanks USDA, for f*cking up my day. They never fail to ruin farmers and put smiles on the 98% of society. Must be a US election coming, ALWAYS TOO MUCH grain worldwide!

[Partners]

As long as there is 1 extra seed, than the consumer needs, there is too much..

[hobbyfrmr]

High grain prices take away from the industry's profits. I agree with FJ and Partners, as long as there is "adequate supply" prices will remain soft.

[fjlip]

In the early 70's world was going to be short of food, DUH guess I should farm, what a monstrous miscalculation that was. Still waiting for food/supply shortages and a profitable inflation adjusted PRICE to producers...will never live long enough to see that. It's give up time!

[wmoebis]

Maybe USDA is anticipating that a lot of the Canadian wheat will be flowing freely South when all the varieties are reclassified and price discounted here but will still be valued as HRS in the USA.

[MBgrower]

We have average farm sizes in australia of 25-40,000 acres. Perhaps they can afford to grow $4 wheat and $8 canola. Is this the future?

[fjlip]

I KNOW we are the PAST, if that is all farmers need to be in future.

[agstar77]

This will mean a bigger bounce on the upside when the real numbers come out.

[charliep]

I suspect you guys are looking at the symptoms and not the disease. The report on it own was not that positive or negative if you actually look at the numbers. It did provide an excuse for what happened today. You bigger issues are currency instability and overall world economic turmoil.

Lots of complaints from guys who were having to buy out contracts because you won't have enough production. This is your opportunity. You likely have a good idea on crop size or lack of.

agstar is right. The WASDE report is todays news. Tomorrow will be something different. It is also the latest of what has been a month of declining prices.

[Braveheart]

Agstar, I agree on the bounce.

Re the report, the US analysts we listen to ALL though the USDA was out to lunch. They felt the USDA hadn't reconciled the crop condition with the climate model. They also said last years crop size was greatly overestimated (surprise).

Oh well, with volatility comes opportunity. Patience. Serenity now.

[Mmanitoba]

God you guys that thought the free market in Canada would be better are simple. Ya, the big grain company's will look after me or I will be a big wheel and send it south.

[Braveheart]

Yes Mmanitoba, I'm sure you long for the initial payment days of the CWB to come back. Let's see, this year it would be $0.97/bushel. No wait, that's high. Maybe $0.87. **** me what bullshit.