USDA and the reports

[malleefarmer]

Try to be a active "knowledgeable" marketer and shoot me down guys.
1 seems to me that come febuary most usda reports are not that far out.

2 what ever the numbers whatever the report suck it up nothing you can do and all the bitching and whining wont change it.

We have no such reporting mechanism in Australia can be both good and bad.

ok its Friday night watching football a few red wines in the belly rip into me guys ive got a tough hide

[dalek]

Red wine? aaaaah ha ha ha ha! (Just kidding, mostly)
If they're right, they're right. If they're wrong, and people are so sure they are, there are opportunities to make money off their mistakes.

[charliep]

I don't know if there is such a thing as right or wrong on a USDA report. It simply a piece of information the market reacts to when it is released. Tends to be more of a reaction in the summer because this is when everyone is evaluating crop size and relative ability to cover consumption/need to ration via price.

My own thoughts are follow expectations from industry/others prior to report and then the realities of the report on the day it is released. Realize that USDA reports like everything has shelf life. I suspect that Wednesday report is close to history and market participants are using their own numbers.

[TOM4CWB]

Mallee,

It is hard not to say,,,.... you could see this one coming from a mile away. Beans are made in August... and Canola in July. If we get a normal fall with frost coming on normal dates... Sept 10-14 here in central AB, we have a much improved Canola crop in Alberta from earlier reports. Just starting another rain event here in central Alberta this morning... which will help fill the later canola now it has completed blooming. The thunder is booming as I speak... after all the gnashing of teeth. we could have a very nice canola crop... later seeded fields look great, we are very blessed. And We are still short Canola... the bounce back to over $510 was a gift to those who missed... or who were unsure of production. Volume is virtually assured here... I think we could push 14.5mmt instead of 13.5mmt in western Canada... from what it looks like to me!
Cheers!

[bucket]

Thanks for those talking points Tom Harper.

[TOM4CWB]

Bucket, I did not know you lived in Ausie land, when did you move there and start work for Mallee?

Although PM Harper knows who I am... mostly from my MP... the last time I actually spoke with him was in Innisfail when he was leader of the NCC when he was attending a CWB meeting with then CWB Director Jim Chatenay. Now that brings back memories!

I thank you for the complement though!