It is a rainy Saturday morning and I pull out the latest western producer and start reading. In the market section first article is about how the US corn crop isn't doing very good and this one company is downgrading yield expectation to 160 bushels per acre. An extensive analysis of aerial photographs throughout the Midwest led to this conclusion. Of course the article was written before the release of the latest USDA Crop reports released on Wednesday. So within a few days two very different opinions but the one opinion had a much larger affect on the market. Time will tell who was right.
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Looks like we are headed for a long cool wet fall for the ND/SD/MN western corn/soy belt... according to El Nino forecasts for the next many months. Concern for tough harvest conditions... which bumps up yield on later seeded crops often.
Last Sunday this was posted on DTN:
"Wet Harvest Possible With El Nino
OMAHA (DTN) -- Wide swings in precipitation during the upcoming fall and winter due to El Nino have weather agency forecasters cautious about the impact on harvest conditions, river flow and fire potential in the upper Missouri River basin. The region extends from Montana to Minnesota and from North Dakota to Nebraska.
Above-normal precipitation during El Nino years may bring a wet harvest season to the Western Corn Belt. (NOAA graphic)
El Nino is the term used to describe the warming of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that takes place every few years. This warming alters the weather pattern of the tropics, and can extend its influence over many other areas of the world, including the U.S. Recent temperature readings place the eastern Pacific temperatures at 3 degrees Celsius above average, which is well above the average reading. This warming extends to a depth of approximately 300 meters. Thus, a huge pool of water has the anomalous warmth. This warmer-ocean regime is expected to remain in place for the balance of the year.
"Forecasts have El Nino in effect through the winter into spring," said Dennis Todey, South Dakota state climatologist. "The likelihood is 90% or above for this -- certainly through this winter."
The extent of warming in the current El Nino may rival some of the strongest such events in recorded history. "El Nino was strong in 1982-83, and in 1997-98. The readings for those events certainly compare to this one," Todey said."
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