Jan 16 Canola broke down through 480...

[TOM4CWB]

What do you think Errol... will it close Nov 473???

[errolanderson]

Tom, canola is in-trouble right now.

This is stemming from a weakened global veg oil demand side which is tied directly to global economics.

[errolanderson]

Shanghai composite index lost 6% last nite. This is bothering global veg oil markets today.

[TOM4CWB]

Erro,

Was down to $472... next resistance is?....

[TOM4CWB]

Errol,

Looks like the charts would suggest 465 would be support... from past moves before this rally...

Nice head and shoulders... will that mean 458 is more likely on Nov?

[cottonpicken]

Eye balling from a phone I got 460 as the line we do not want to cross then our uptrend started in late 14 is done

[errolanderson]

Markets tend to retrace their steps, both up and down.

Tom, can see the $465 support line that you indicated. But canola will become increasingly oversold technically on this current decline.

Should Friday's Stat Can report throw the bulls a bone, it could ignite a short covering rebound. But if it doesn't, the current downtrend will remain in-place.

[TOM4CWB]

Errol,

There is at least 14.5mmt out here... it is fantastic how this crop has bounced back in Alberta!

It may be short... but BIG pods and more branches than normal. If we ca get frost free to Sept 10... it will be reasonable quality as well.

Here is the DTN tech. on supports... great job!

"Cliff Jamieson DTN Canadian Grains Analyst
Tuesday 8/18/15
Canola Breaks Technical Support
Non-commercial or investor selling weighed heavily on canola futures Tuesday. As seen on the attached chart, a break through technical support today led to increased selling along with further losses....

...The first potential technical support level to watch is $471.70/mt, the 50% retracement of the move from the December 2014 low on the November contract to the July high. Today's low came within $.40/mt of testing this level. The next potential level of support is seen at $463.70/mt, which represents the 50% retracement of the move from the September low to the December high, as seen on the continuous active chart (not shown). Below this level is the 200-day moving average at $457.90/mt and the 61.8% retracement of the move from the November contract's December low to the July high at $455.70/mt."

[agstar77]

Retrace breakdown Yada Yada, just means farmers will get screwed some more.

[TOM4CWB]

Ag,

If you were short... and planned to gain the difference on the crop you grew... why would this be a problem? Isn't this what marketing and risk management can do for those who have a plan?

We had many chances and warnings this was coming... it should be a surprise to no one... as this happens year after year!

All the best, hope your harvest is very blessed!