Jan 16 Canola broke down through 480...

[TOM4CWB]

What do you think Errol... will it close Nov 473???

[errolanderson]

Tom, canola is in-trouble right now.

This is stemming from a weakened global veg oil demand side which is tied directly to global economics.

[errolanderson]

Shanghai composite index lost 6% last nite. This is bothering global veg oil markets today.

[TOM4CWB]

Erro,

Was down to $472... next resistance is?....

[TOM4CWB]

Errol,

Looks like the charts would suggest 465 would be support... from past moves before this rally...

Nice head and shoulders... will that mean 458 is more likely on Nov?

[cottonpicken]

Eye balling from a phone I got 460 as the line we do not want to cross then our uptrend started in late 14 is done

[errolanderson]

Markets tend to retrace their steps, both up and down.

Tom, can see the $465 support line that you indicated. But canola will become increasingly oversold technically on this current decline.

Should Friday's Stat Can report throw the bulls a bone, it could ignite a short covering rebound. But if it doesn't, the current downtrend will remain in-place.

[TOM4CWB]

Errol,

There is at least 14.5mmt out here... it is fantastic how this crop has bounced back in Alberta!

It may be short... but BIG pods and more branches than normal. If we ca get frost free to Sept 10... it will be reasonable quality as well.

Here is the DTN tech. on supports... great job!

"Cliff Jamieson DTN Canadian Grains Analyst
Tuesday 8/18/15
Canola Breaks Technical Support
Non-commercial or investor selling weighed heavily on canola futures Tuesday. As seen on the attached chart, a break through technical support today led to increased selling along with further losses....

...The first potential technical support level to watch is $471.70/mt, the 50% retracement of the move from the December 2014 low on the November contract to the July high. Today's low came within $.40/mt of testing this level. The next potential level of support is seen at $463.70/mt, which represents the 50% retracement of the move from the September low to the December high, as seen on the continuous active chart (not shown). Below this level is the 200-day moving average at $457.90/mt and the 61.8% retracement of the move from the November contract's December low to the July high at $455.70/mt."

[agstar77]

Retrace breakdown Yada Yada, just means farmers will get screwed some more.

[TOM4CWB]

Ag,

If you were short... and planned to gain the difference on the crop you grew... why would this be a problem? Isn't this what marketing and risk management can do for those who have a plan?

We had many chances and warnings this was coming... it should be a surprise to no one... as this happens year after year!

All the best, hope your harvest is very blessed!

[farming101]

Say there is a 14.5 MMT crop out there. Could be. Things have really turned around in a big area.
Looking ahead with the new plant in Camrose online, and supposing that there could be some slack in the crush this year with the the latest gloom and doom, it could still be realistic to say that 8 MMT might be used domestically.(which would be a record)
A 1 MMT carryover for 2015/16 points to an 8 year low in exports to make it work.
Plus no one knows the size of the US bean crop and what El Nino has in store for South America. Lots can happen that would help out our canola market.
$450 November for a fall low anyone?

What could really mess up prices--A 15.5 MMT crop, or China taking a lot less canola this year.
Yields of 40 for Manitoba, 32 for Saskatchewan and 37 for Alberta would be enough for 15.5 MMT.

[farmaholic]

For those who never took advantage of the late June early July spike in Minni wheat and the mid July spike in canola, for what ever reason, its still a long time to market this crop, hopefully some opportunites present themselves over the next twelve months. This crop is only coming off now.

We each have our own reasons for doing what we do....

Errol, how much of the decline is based on or due to fear than fundamentals?

[vvalk]

Tom what possible expertise do you have to make a 14.5MT estimate. Everyone knows your short the market and you can quit padding your back that you saw this coming and are so smart. Did you take on a 10000 contract position because you knew this was coming and it happens every year. Never seen such so much shit being thrown around by you on here lately. And if people can complain about he swearing I would appreciate it if you would quit throwing blessings around

[farmaholic]

Farming101, I'm doing my part to bring the averages down in Sask. Anyone wishing to show their appreciation, feel free. Wire transfers accepted ;-)

[farming101]

Farmaholic, sorry to hear that.

Actually, our canola yields won't be all that great either, but I have seen a lot of heavy canola crops around the province in the last little while. It is certainly not all bad.
Not in the bin yet either.
Remember that big wind storm a few years back that made a lot of canola disappear?