Jan 16 Canola broke down through 480...

[farming101]

Say there is a 14.5 MMT crop out there. Could be. Things have really turned around in a big area.
Looking ahead with the new plant in Camrose online, and supposing that there could be some slack in the crush this year with the the latest gloom and doom, it could still be realistic to say that 8 MMT might be used domestically.(which would be a record)
A 1 MMT carryover for 2015/16 points to an 8 year low in exports to make it work.
Plus no one knows the size of the US bean crop and what El Nino has in store for South America. Lots can happen that would help out our canola market.
$450 November for a fall low anyone?

What could really mess up prices--A 15.5 MMT crop, or China taking a lot less canola this year.
Yields of 40 for Manitoba, 32 for Saskatchewan and 37 for Alberta would be enough for 15.5 MMT.

[farmaholic]

For those who never took advantage of the late June early July spike in Minni wheat and the mid July spike in canola, for what ever reason, its still a long time to market this crop, hopefully some opportunites present themselves over the next twelve months. This crop is only coming off now.

We each have our own reasons for doing what we do....

Errol, how much of the decline is based on or due to fear than fundamentals?

[vvalk]

Tom what possible expertise do you have to make a 14.5MT estimate. Everyone knows your short the market and you can quit padding your back that you saw this coming and are so smart. Did you take on a 10000 contract position because you knew this was coming and it happens every year. Never seen such so much shit being thrown around by you on here lately. And if people can complain about he swearing I would appreciate it if you would quit throwing blessings around

[farmaholic]

Farming101, I'm doing my part to bring the averages down in Sask. Anyone wishing to show their appreciation, feel free. Wire transfers accepted ;-)

[farming101]

Farmaholic, sorry to hear that.

Actually, our canola yields won't be all that great either, but I have seen a lot of heavy canola crops around the province in the last little while. It is certainly not all bad.
Not in the bin yet either.
Remember that big wind storm a few years back that made a lot of canola disappear?

[TOM4CWB]

vvalk,

Sorry you had a bad day.

There are many people much smarter than I... that anyone with internet and a DTN CDN account can follow for less than $500 a year. A plan is what is needed... here to Help those who are humble enough to glean wisdom from others... which is all I am capable of myself!

The information age is truly a revolution! What we choose to study... how we study information... and the sources and attitudes we choose in our management... are key to a good business.

Hope better day tomorrow... all the best seriously!

[farmaholic]

Yup, I do. I was combining while the swaths were lifting and flipping. It was a poor crop to start with...very heavy sclerotinia infection so it was kinda of light and fluffy, swathed at night to prevent shelling then had to endure the wind losses. No one ever told me it would be easy!!!

Hence my moniker, I know its not good for me but continue to do it anyway. Kinda like a bad addiction. I need to go for help!

[TOM4CWB]

BTW VVALK,

A 10.000T position would be wild speculation... I put the short position hedge on after good July rains... for the reasonable expected yield.

We are a small family farm as farms go today... just doing the best with what we have to work with... and for those other families we farm with!

[malleefarmer]

Tom put up some rational thoughts and whats he sees gets howled down sask does the same gets nailed to the cross at times geez you guys its only opinions not chest beating lighten up.

[errolanderson]

believe average trade guess for Cdn canola production is around 13.5 million MT. This would represent a 14% decline from a year ago, if true.

This average guess will be compared with Stats Can to make an assessment of bullish or bearish interpretation on Friday morning.