Statistics Canada First Production Estimate

[charliep]

Statistics Canada released their first production estimate this morning. Canada all wheat 24.6 MMT. Canola 13.3 MMT. Barley 7.3 MMT. Oats 3.3 MMT. Peas 2.9 MMT. Would post the link but don't know how from my BlackBerry. A non report that will be dismissed. Other outside facts far more important in price right now.

[farmaholic]

A light crop with no demand and poor prices, what else can a guy ask for? Don't worry,,,,be happy!

[sumdumguy]

Farmaholic, lots of demand for special crops and I heard American grain companies are clamouring for Canadian durum.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

Report was done the last part of July... so Canola portion is already been disputed before it was released. Canola is somewhat like Soybeans... a good last half July first half Aug can make a world of difference in yield!

I am sticking with 14.5mmt... especially if we can make it to Sept 15 without a killing frost on the CDN Prairies!

[Oliver88]

For canola the CWB did the most extensive tour out of any organization and they have estimated 12.79 MT for Canada. I think this works out to 30 bpa.

14.5 MMT would be 33 bpa.

How will western Sask and Alberta bounce back?

[charliep]

Will let others comment on the production side. Right in that a very early survey so will change. My eye is the consumption side. There will be markets/transportation capacity for every kernel that is produced. The issue today is you like the price. Prices will change as well. Volatility will continue. A curse or benefit depending on what you do.

Don't worry - be happy. Likely stoned or drunk. Worry about everything be sad. Likely stoned or drunk. Do the things within your control to best of your ability.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

From DTN;

"Winnipeg Pit Talk
Fri Aug 21, 2015 09:54 AM CDT

Cash Talk: StatsCan Production Estimates 'Too Low' For Canola,
Wheat

By Terryn Shiells, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, August 21 - Statistics Canada released the
first survey-based production estimates for the 2015/16
(Aug/Jul) crop year Friday morning, with canola and wheat
figures coming in at the lower end of expectations.
But, the trade is shrugging off the report, as they
believe final production numbers for most crops will be larger
than what Statistics Canada estimated in the August 21 report.
"I think everyone in the marketplace is of the opinion
that the crop conditions have improved since the survey was
taken, so this crop is bigger than what the numbers suggest,"
said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada."

Just to be straight

[ado089]

My canola is loving all this rain. After basically forgetting to flower in July it's now turning yellow again. If there's no frost until November I'll have a helluva crop. Maybe is should be top dressing instead of desicating.