Nov Canola Close 466...

[TOM4CWB]

We now had a Nov close break support at 468. 458 next major support to be tested.

Will this be by Friday... or in the next week?

I guess by Friday. Puts kick in... Short positions to be removed.

[farming101]

Hoping 450 is our harvest low. No reason just hoping.
It is looking like there will be enough canola for everyone's needs this year. Not good for prices.
And until crude oil gains some good traction don't look for bean oil and canola to do much.
Crude oil will go up. It's only a matter of time.
The last reduction in yearly crude oil comsumption was decades ago. Demand is higher than ever.

[TOM4CWB]

On Crude Oil... WHEN Iran comes on stream... we will be awash in black oil. Obama is going to do his deal. Iran gets over $150B and opens the oil taps.

China loves this idea. So does N Korea. Doubt the Ruskies can do anything about it... and Saudis are enemies. We are headed for a tough year... I hear Jan 1 2016 could release Iran from sanctions. Since good bean and corn crop in US... why won't Canola hit the lows of last fall... which were at $385???.

Good Luck!

We need wisdom NOW... I could be wrong... but if this happens.... I would say over 75 percent chance.

[vvalk]

Yes Tom. We know your short the market.

[TOM4CWB]

VValk,

The low early was 458... I cashed out the set of my Short Nov position. Now my 460 puts do the work.

Who says farmers can't extract a premium from the big money!

Our imagination is our only limitation... if applied with common sense, wisdom, and the fear of God!!!

[errolanderson]

Put options have been an excellent protective price tool for just about every commodity through this global washout.

Outside the grain world, live and feeder cattle puts have also done an excellent job protecting feeders from potential fall and winter feeding losses.

[TOM4CWB]

errol,

It is sad that farmers operate millions of dollars of equipment and land... with 100's of thousands operating and millions of Capital debt... and freeze up at the first cold market wind.

Been that way forever. 'I will ONLY sell cash grain"... just like the CWB and with the same result in the end... in bull markets do OK. In bear markets... the bulls get slaughtered!

So Be it. More the folks who manage risk! And the Grain co's love farmers who sell cash... cause they can squeeze more out of basis!

[errolanderson]

Tom, I have lost customers because their put options expired worthless when in-reality that is great news as the cash market rose.

But in price risk management, you simply can't eat your cake and pie at the same time.

But when markets fall out-of-bed (which grain and livestock are doing right now), put options are a great cover with limited risk (the premium).

Also, the grower and feeder has control of their positions, not a government program which reduces your market flexibility.

Market education is sooo important.

I will shut-up now.