Statscan

[vvalk]

Did I hear right that statscan increased carry over of canola to 2 million tonnes? If so where would those tonnes be. From what I understand the crushers in July/August couldn't find enough canola. I don't know a single farmer who had any carryover. Zero.

[vvalk]

I read on here that camtose had really bad winds. I know in southern Alberta I wouldn't want to count the acres that blew to hell the last few days

[charliep]

Not my job anymore but curious as to how Statistics Canada came up with the 2.3 MMT July 31 carryover. They increased 2013 production to 18.5 MMT from 18 previously. Carryover on July 31, 2014 increased by a similar amount.

Wheat was a bit of surprise. No big but domestic feed wheat use less than I expected.

Numbers are the numbers. Will let you guys continue with your political discussions. At the end of the day, this report is a non issue. Other factors far more important now.

[errolanderson]

Ag Can latest estimate at 950,000 MT
Stats Can at 2.32 million MT.

Two (2) Cdn gov't agencies paid by our tax dollars.

P.S. If Stats Can is actually right, our canola carryout may exceed 3 million MT a year from now given reduced export demand and larger than expected canola crop.

[TOM4CWB]

Winnipeg Pit Talk from DTN:

Winnipeg Pit Talk
Thu Sep 3, 2015 10:22 AM CDT

Cash Talk
Canola Stocks Increase Dramatically With StatsCan Report

By Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, September 3 - It appears there's a lot more
canola in Prairie fields and bins than anybody thought.
According to this morning's Stocks of Principal Fields Crop
report from Statistics Canada, the country had 2.3 million
tonnes of canola in its stocks, as of July 31. That is between
500,000 and one million tonnes higher than analysts' estimates
heading into the report.
In addition, StatsCan raised its estimate for last year's
(as of July 31, 2014) supplies to 3 million tonnes, which was
six hundred thousand tonnes more than had been originally
thought.
"Wow, that's huge?" said Wayne Palmer of Agri-Trend
Marketing in Winnipeg, Manitoba.
He says the numbers suggest to him that canola exports have
been over-estimated up to this point along with the crush
numbers.
"Now all of a sudden it doesn't matter how big our crop is,
it's going to be very difficult to get a rally going here,"
Palmer said.
StatsCan's online production numbers were also adjusted.
According to the agency, the 2014/15 crop increased from the old
estimate of 15.6 million tonnes to 16.4 million tonnes.
Disparities like that are going to lead most people to
conclude that the 2015/16 crop is probably larger than the
current estimate, said Mike Jubinville of ProFarmer Canada.
"You're going to hear people talking about a 15 million
tonne crop," he said.
Another analyst, Ken Ball, of PI Financial in Winnipeg
agreed, wondering why the difference didn't show up on previous
stocks reports. It certainly alters the canola situation quite
dramatically, he said.
"We go from having to do a fairly significant rationing job
to a very minor rationing job," said Ball.
All wheat ending stocks were pegged at 7.1 million tonnes
which was at the high end of trade guesses, but still below the
10.4 million tonnes seen the previous year.
Barley stocks at 1.2 million tonnes were also at the high
end of trade estimates and compares to the 1.9 million tonnes
seen the previous year.
Total pea stocks, as of July 31, were pegged at 429
thousand tonnes which was one hundred tonnes higher compared to
the 2014 total.
The following table is a recap of Statistics Canada's
stocks report for the period ended July 31, 2015. Figures are in
million metric tons.

Pre-Report Total Stocks Total Stocks
Estimates July 31/15 July 31/14 31/14

All wheat 5.100 - 7.100 7.108 10.446
Durum 0.800 - 1.200 0.982 1.779
Canola 0.800 - 1.700 2.322 3.008
Barley 0.650 - 1.200 1.217 1.950
Flaxseed 0.080 - 0.100 0.097 0.389
Oats 0.550 - 1.000 0.681 1.054

[vvalk]

Where is this 2 million tonnes? Commercial stocks? I don't know a single farmer that had 1 bus left. Not saying someone doesn't but that much. Every company has been scrambling to get canola as soon as it started to be harvested in southern Alberta? Should do a poll on here to see how many people on here had canola carried over

[farmaholic]

About 12 tonnes.... whoopty doo!

[charliep]

I will answer from the numbers in the report and not the political side. Of the 2.3 MMT July 31 carryovers, 1.3 MMT was in commercial inventory (CGC number) versus 1.1 MMT in 2014. Farm stocks are just over 1 MMT July 31 versus 1.9 MMT a year previous. Why did it play out the way it did this past summer. I suspect everyone (farmers and grain companies) wanted to be long canola going into a smaller production year. Storage was not an issue for either either the commercial system or on farm bin capacity.

[tweety]

They certainly are getting pretty good at the game. Canola is worth about 7.00 US a bushel. Nice margins.

[TOM4CWB]

If the vast majority of grain growers adopt satellite guidance systems...

Why not risk managements tools to match GPS guidance? Can it be any more complicated?

Big hedge funds and day traders know how to spread the risk of futures positions... and still make money. AND they don't own the underling grain! They are Specs... NOT HEDGERS!

Why can't farmers be bothered??? Is it actually easier to burry thy head in the sand pit... and blame everyone else???

Volatility should be a farmer's best friend... not a reason to freeze up Marketing plans and hang thy head is shame!!!

John DePape... you were so right!!!

[farming101]

A good percentage of farmers are quite comfortable gambling with on farm stocks.
They also don't like the idea of margin calls or options premiums. And yes I have a hedging account.
Many times keeping ownership of physical grain has paid handsomely.
More than one way to skin a cat. Just sayin.

[MBgrower]

Farmers lie on surveys, just ask sakfarmer. At least the underestimated number supported prices last year to allow me to sell all my canola north of 11/bu. Thank you to all liars.

[farmaholic]

Tom, do you farm alone? Where do you find the time? That being said, once its learned you only have to do it. I have no experience but lets hear from the guys that do take positions and use options and make margin calls and profits. Are the profits ever substantial? Are the margin calls ever ugly?

Remember what I said before about comparing it to casino loses, seldom anyone ever brags about them but the wins, look out!!!

[farmaholic]

To be clear....it's not like I've never lost (or could have sold my grain for more) money storing grain. Holding grain in the bin is taking a position.

[TOM4CWB]

Farmaholic,

Farm with my family and brother... we jointly (JV) operate two medium size farms together; 100mi apart... move SPsprayer and 1 combine/headers back and forth... share semi trucks as well when needed.