Statscan

[macdon02]

I have a trading account, live futures platform, I prefer the paper over bins. Here's why.... margin calls and watching the equity in my account diminish gives me cold hard reality that I AM WRONG. Grain buried in a bin is not the same, it's like hope to someone dying, if market is falling. I am 39 years old and I have taken a long position on the next 25ish crops, they are not sold, which means I am speculating they will be worth more then they are TODAY. If I take a paper position and I lose, its no different then selling at a lower price. I want to maximize the cash value on every sale but there are times when it is extremely important to go to a risk off position. I am leveraged more then Id like to be but thats life, I ll get there one day. Too often we, as farmers, think that USDA or Stats Can is wrong, must be on glue, because the numbers dont agree with the position we have taken, often binning or not selling. These outfits suck, but they are the best looking girl at the lepper colony so the trade accepts them, right or wrong, arguing isnt an option as one never wins, admitting ones position is wrong isnt easy but I find the paper hits harder then the physical. There's no right or wrong way to market just find what works for you, and admit when your wrong!!

[macdon02]

PS I sold the day before the it froze this spring because, technically, it was setup for a crash, so I missed the rally

[farming101]

Well said Macdon02.
Bills and payments require insurance of some sort for a backstop or it can be game over.
Knowledge of what makes a market is insurance.

[SASKFARMER3]

V I for once agree with you.
Macdon good on you being so leveraged on paper.
But a old guy once said the dream for his farm was to have a years worth of grain on the farm as a insurance. He is long gone but did get their. No risk at all when things hit the ditch. Just drove in and out and back on the road, then stopped and bought a bunch of guys out and continued on.
Both are good.
But back to stats can and USDA. Both need a new invention.
USDA fuddged the corn numbers a few years ago as the USA was out of corn and their would have been riots as food went through the roof.
Stats Canada is just a useless organization that's time has come to be put out to pasture.
All that needed to be done is Sask crop has 37000 farmer clients who have to send in stored grain at end of year. You want that number since if you have a crop failure you definitely want them to measure your stored grain so they don't add that grain to this years crop.
Manitoba and alberta are similar. True production.
Oh wait that's to easy.
What a joke.
I can honestly say the bins of every single guy I chat with on Canola were cleaned out swept out and gone by end of July. $12.00 a bushel was possible with right basis.
So now they think were in over supply. What a f$#king Joke.

[Braveheart]

So, canola closed lower mainly due to Statscan. Their reporting is so poor they should change their name to Statscan't.

Markets go down when there are more sellers than buyers. But, really, who would want to sell this market? Reseeded canola yields are way down for most. Lots of questions around the US crops with excess moisture in the US earlier. Also earlier, the drought in western Canada. China might have economic woes, but those billions of people, pigs, cows, etc still need to eat.

I'm certainly not bullish right now, but, there comes a time when bearish talk just gets tired.

[bucket]

With today's computers to be that far out?

It sort of justifies the need for transparent reporting. Forward sales. Shipping reports and better storage reports from graincos.

Farmers report to crop insurance. Who do the rest report to?

It's hard not to put on the tin foil and think this is market manipulation when shit like this happens. Changing reports 2 years after the fact?

[charliep]

I guess I like to look at the numbers.

Exports a record 9.1 MMT, just above 2013/14.

Crush a record 7.4 MMT. Total disappearance 17.1 MMT.

Carryover of 2.3 MMT. That is a stocks use ration of 13 percent or 7 weeks supply.

I suspect yesterdays report didn't matter a hill of beans in the market. Your challenge is 27 cent per pound soybean - something that has caught me off guard. The other issue is financial turmoil in China - your biggest customer for canola seed and products.

You guys may choose to get mad about history. I prefer to stay focused on what lies ahead. From my side, there is a market for both the July 31 carryover and all 2015 production. It is just a matter of price and monthly sales patterns/movement.

[LEP]

I know of one guy with about a 1000 mt. He told me this spring that he is holding for $14.

I talked to him on tuesday and said he might be holding for $9. He is going to build some more bins next year.

I walk away shaking my head.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, western Canada grows other crops than canola. Total wheat exports last year including products 24.1 MMT, up 500,000 tonnes from 2013/14and likely a record taking out the previous ones late 1980's and early 1990's. Barley exports 2.5 MMT (1.7 MMT of grain and 800,000 malt product). Peas exports a record (I think) 3 MMT.

[macdon02]

Brave... look at it this way, you are assuming that someone is shorting the market, look at it from the other side. From the view that someone was long and are losing, they are getting that margin call and now need to exit, placing the sell order. In essence what is happening is the long positions are moving the market to the next available buy order, which is likely someones stop at a lower level. So its the longs exiting causing the price to drop. Have to remember this is a zero sum game, for every buy there has to be a sell.

[charliep]

You for sure follow closer than I do these days but would seem open interest is building. New crop is just around the corner so more commercial business that needs to be covered. Also a very negative market for just about everything related to commodities - sell now and make money when prices go lower. Not saying the market sentiment is right - just hard to argue with a market that has the downward trend to it that we see today. One of my favourite expressions that came out of Agriville is: People who try to pick bottoms only get sticky fingers.

[macdon02]

Futures are not designed the farmers benefit and the industry keeps us in the dark on the mechanics, is not in their best interest. There was WAY TOO MUCH COMPLACENCY, with the days of the CWB. Think farmers embraced it so they have a scapegoat. We are generations behind to the rest of the world and its time to step it up. Govt keeps us stupid because as long as the general population is fed cheaply there's no reason to revolt. The system is rigged against us. We always pay but we hold the keys. Time to get educated cause I think it's gonna get interesting the next couple years, in a good way for farmers.

[Braveheart]

Macdon02, I believe you are right on all counts. I know there has been a lot of trapped longs whose stps were blown by. I don't have the time, and my eyes glaze over, to go over a commitment of traders report, but suspect a large specs still holding large long positions.

Back to markets and psychology, if I put my self in the end users place, should I be a buyer now? If I was an end user of corn or meal I'd want to be a scale down buyer.

[MBgrower]

Nov canola was trading around 540 back in july, there was lots of opportunity to use options to protect downnward spiral. Just saying.

[macdon02]

Futures are not designed the farmers benefit and the industry keeps us in the dark on the mechanics, is not in their best interest. There was WAY TOO MUCH COMPLACENCY, with the days of the CWB. Think farmers embraced it so they have a scapegoat. We are generations behind to the rest of the world and its time to step it up. Govt keeps us stupid because as long as the general population is fed cheaply there's no reason to revolt. The system is rigged against us. We always pay but we hold the keys. Time to get educated cause I think it's gonna get interesting the next couple years, in a good way for farmers.