Statscan

[farmaholic]

Nobody knew Nov canola was going to give back about $80/tonne. But in "HINDSIGHT" the in the money put at the time" looks cheap today.

[macdon02]

Brave, as an end user why step in now, its pure currency game and its all about the US$. We are deflating, like it or not. Isnt a comodity in the world that is worth more now then 6-12 months ago. Im bullish grain end of 16 early 17 no later

[TOM4CWB]

Farmaholic;
Not so fast... Just saying...

I sure remember this post:!!!

"vvalk Reply posted Aug 19, 2015 1:04
Tom what possible expertise do you have to make a 14.5MT estimate. Everyone knows your short the market and you can quit padding your back that you saw this coming and are so smart. Did you take on a 10000 contract position because you knew this was coming and it happens every year. Never seen such so much shit being thrown around by you on here lately. And if people can complain about he swearing I would appreciate it if you would quit throwing blessings around"

Then I did this:

TOM4CWB Reply posted Aug 20, 2015 10:51

Errol,

Just did a Sold490 Call Bought460 Put spread... at even money. In my mind this makes better sense as an options risk cover plan.

Too much volatility cost in buying the Put outright!

Tired of paying options premiums!!!
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errolanderson Reply posted Aug 20, 2015 10:59
Tom, solid trading strategy, but you are responsible for the upside beyond $490/MT. But if you have the crop, it's a hedge. Thanks for the input . . .
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Oliver88 Reply posted Aug 20, 2015 23:52
Errol/Tom - what is your opinion on a beans put option? (To take the place of canola)
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TOM4CWB Reply posted Aug 21, 2015 0:22
Oliver,

The disconnect is that Canola is 45 percent oil... and Soy 22. Meal is very important to Soy complex and often drives price of beans... Then there is the exchange problem...

I was surprised how the Canola option spread was easily filled this morning...

Author TOM4CWB
Topic:Has Canola topped for now?
posted Jul 22, 2015 8:22

I see these comments this morning:

Canola has been firmer from the start in overnight action. Palm oil is lower, European ****seed and soybeans are mixed, soy oil and meal are firmer. The Canadian dollar is down about fifteen one hundreds of a cent against the U.S. dollar this morning. It looks like trading could be choppy
today as traders appear to be reluctant to trade too aggressively until they have a firm opinion on the size of this year's crops.

BULL SIDE
1) The Canadian dollar is back on the defensive against the U.S. dollar this morning, holding just above $.77.
2) Canola has been weak relative to
soy recently, reducing talk that canola is expensive relative to other vegetable oils; which reduced the premium to other vegetable oils.
3) Though crop conditions in western Canada have improved in many areas, Some argue that the recent rain has been too little, too late, to have much effect on total canola production.

BEAR SIDE
1) Ample soy crop largely due to the huge South American/world soy supply, will compensate for any shortage in the Canadian canola crop.
2) There are reports of improving crop conditions in western Canada; crop concerns have definitely eased for now.
3) Canola continues to hold above key
support levels on the price charts if support is violated, the selling could build on itself since prices may have topped for now.

ado089 Reply posted Jul 22, 2015 10:28
I'm worried that the top is in for now. Weather has stabilized in most regions of NA. Basis has narrowed a touch for August but new crop is what I would call normal. All other commodity prices are taking it on the chin. China, Greece and poor economic growth closers to home.

I have a pretty large long position and I have $512 in mind as the number to cut it loose at.

AND

Author TOM4CWB
Topic: Bloody Monday Bloody...
posted Jul 27, 2015 17:41

DTN special report ends like this...

Jerry is a master marketer (in my opinion) and farmer.

"Taking out the July lows in December corn futures still leaves a considerable void to the lows made in the fall of 2014 using continuous price charts that reflect the lead contract. If December 2015 corn were the lead contract today it would still have about sixty cents downside risk. For someone with a good crop it could mean still $120 per acre downside risk. Something similar can be said for soybeans, but I will have to see more convincing information that the crop is as bad overall as some believe before picking a bottom no matter how tempting.

I have tried to catch a falling knife before, and it is difficult. I will stay largely short futures from two weeks ago and covered for 2015 crops."

Jerry Gulke, President Gulke Group, Inc. For more info, go to www.gulkegroup.com, or click info@gulkegroup.com or phone 707-365-0601; 480-285-4745

I don't pretend to be smart... but catching a falling knife as Jerry says is no fun!

Don't stand in front of a fast moving freight train... and did I ever learn that lesson over the last 6 months!!!

Author TOM4CWB
Topic:2015 Marketing our crop...catching a falling knife?
posted Aug 3, 2015 14:08

I posted part of Jerry Gulke's column last week... he got big push back from it in the US. Just as with Fabulous Fabas here... [PLEASE NOTE]...few want to admit the crop is/can be as good as it is... Just as in the US row crop country. Our technology and stable producers allow for near miraculous production from scant moisture.

[farmaholic]

Tom. So how much did your trading strategy net you? I'm happy for you you have enough knowledge to see and take advantage of the "opportunity".

[bucket]

You will know when things turn against Tom. He goes on a hunger strike.

[furrowtickler]

Sarcan would put out more accurate numbers than Statscan - and get it done far more efficiently and quickly.

[charliep]

Just curious what sarcan is? Lots of private sector numbers - most are never publicly available. Statistics Canada is only the most visible.

From other conversations, I am always amazed at farmers understanding of marketing and the differences between being a hedger and a speculator.

[TOM4CWB]

Farma,

Did our expected 2015 crop. Since we Sold the 2015Nov at $
490 and some for later sales 2016Mar at $500
Broker says buyout best so we did a 10 percent buyback open order so the sold calls get cleared off when price drops enough. This is a hedge. Tonnes match production expected. If market goes up I am short at 490 and 500... which is great if things came back up!!! If not put orders in to buy the futures at the call strike prices... like the funds do that sell the options.

[TOM4CWB]

Bucket,

I took a small loss last fall... AND LEARNED from it.

The idea here was to help others who always complain we are market takers... instead of market makers. We don't need to if volatility gives us the opportunity to sell at good prices.

We crucify me all you like... we all end up 6 feet under at some time!

Bless you... hope harvest goes better and life treats you well!