And what percent of your future grain sales would you have already sold at a lower level?
None of you even managed to see this coming??????????
None of you even managed to see this coming??????????
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I'll admit this, I sold too much '07 canola at lower prices than todays.
BUT I accept responsibility for it as I will not find an employee or consultant who will.
I accept the other side of the sword that allows me to make all contract arrangements with end user.
I can sell '08 and '09 crop at $9.30.
without permission or extra third party legal hoops.
I also admit I was forced to sell '05 crop for $5.50. But I lost more money on my wheat because of this "impermeable layer".
If "average" was the most successful the world would be an identical place.
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Cotton you either just don't get it or are intentionally trying to change the subject, it's called distraction and its not going to work here.
It's not the where the price is at, it's not how much someone sold when, its the difference between board and non board prices.
I suppose if your neighbor just bought the exact same pickup truck as you at exactly the same time but paid $5000.00 less you'd want to change the subject as well.
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it is very disturbing to see the price differance across the border.
and possibly the entire cdn.winter wheat crop could go into the US market and not create a ripple. or backlash.
but the HRS and durham crops , if either sold across the border,or marketed thru their exchanges , would have a huge effect.
these numbers are equal or larger than the total exportable US supplies
So we want the CWB gone.
What happens then?
does a free flow of grains exist across the border ,without tarrifs or volume limits.
Does cdn grain have to have its own exchange if the borders are closed or restricted.
now canada has its own durham & HRS exchange, cdn grain co.s ship our grain to the coast for export at whatever the world price is. they bid on cdn exchange to get supplies.
You may or may not get the US price.
im not saying its a bad thing , just if some of the industry intune people could explain how it would actually play out or function.
what would the new system look like and how would it deliver or not for example a Minn. DNS price?
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A new system would probably look much like what we now have for non-board crops like canola or oats. There is no flood of canola and oats across the U.S. border because of the principle of arbitrage: Canadian processors and exporters will offer equivalent prices on this side of the border to attract product into their marketing systems. Talk of border closures with a voluntary CWB is just fear-mongering.
The principle of arbitrage explains why producers who live far from the U.S. border have nothing to fear from a voluntary CWB.
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that is right Liberty, it is all about arbitrage....note that in alberta the biggest hit on barley prices in the last week was up in the Peace.....why because our natural market is the west coast export market for both feed and malt...
but back to winter wheat...i am soon to harvest a big crop of the stuff, with the domestic feed wheat market off after the ruling of the liberal judge in Calgary my bids are down for this stuff for domestic feed....and if i go the CWB i will be hauling it next July, like I am doing now and have just done with last years wheat crop...most years board crops.... drives me crazy....
yet on canola, oats, and my pea crops I have excellent historically high pricing levels locked in for some of my production at harvest, with the appearance of good upside on the balance of the marketing....and some $9 canola for next crop year off the combine....
Chuck and Steven, free me please, and as soon as possible, and by whatever means at your disposal, I beg this of you!!!!!!!!!
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If all of the durum and HRS wheat in the US were used domestically, you might have a valid argument. But the US exports both types (AD & HRS) and the prices in the US reflect world values. Some shipments into the US would go to their mills but a bunch would be shipped straight out to Europe and North Africa.
The bids in North Dakota are the export prices worked back to an interior location, just like the CWB should be. I realize that one is a spot bid and the other is pooled, but the CWB should be front-loading all of its durum sales and the PRO would better reflect the spot prices. But they think they can squeeze the market and usually lose out as a result.
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Zaphod,
You are right on the export arbitage issue on North Dakota pricing.
If the wheat went through the US shipping system, (Which is much more expensive than ours) it would probably end up in the same recieving terminal at the consuming nations port.
To clarify: Canadian WHEAT CANNOT leave the US. It is against US Law, and CWB Law.
Canadian wheat displaces US wheat that could have been used in the US domestic market, then that US wheat is exported instead of being consumed domestically. It is just a swap. When a US grain company buys my Canadian Wheat, they charge the basis and discount the wheat as if it were going for export to Seattle, then do the wheat swap with the domestic mill and send the US wheat instead of mine to Seattle to be put in the boat for export.
Either way it is an arbitage issue, the US market arbitages the international wheat market... because they hold such a huge reserve of wheat... and are dependable shippers who will get the wheat to the consumer when it is requested.
CWRS or DNS are a small volume compared to Winter Wheat in the world anyway. The CWB gives our winter wheat and CPS away... because it is utility class wheat which they don't believe deserves a premium price. The CWB pool system simply reflects this belief.
FREE WINTER WHEAT in THE WEST!
If I am required to give my wheat away... I want to be the person who decides who should get it and how... NOT a "SIngle Desk" that tells me a lie every time I turn on the radio or open a propaganda peice I must pay for!
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