Alberta Barley Prices

[charliep]

Just a note to highlight this week's Alberta Grain Commission barley prices are posted.

http://www.agric.gov.ab.ca/app21/fgrainprices

Lots of questions in here about the impact of the move back to single desk on prices. Will open this up as a thread for discussion. Hopefully someone will post Saskatchewan and Manitoba prices.

[Fransisco]

Has anyone got similar info for Sask and Manitoba?

[Fransisco]

Oops, sorry for repeating the question.

[craig]

Interesting that the Grande Prairie Region takes the biggest hit in reduced barley prices. I always considered the Peace to be an area of resonably strong support for the board. Maybe a big hit in the pocketbook will have producers re thinking their position.

[charliep]

Grande Prairie is among the lowest freight rates to the coast (particularly if Prince Rupert is in play) and the farthest from Lethbridge.

[northfarmer]

craig, the Peace recently voted in a choice director in Henry Vos, a progressive farmers from the Fairview area. We bounced the socialist Art Macklin out on his %$# last election.

Trust me, when it comes to acres of production the board has little or no support up here in the Peace. There is more barley in the ground up here than i have seen in many years. We had been offered and many had executed on $3.70 off the combine barley contracts with $4.70 option if it went malt to the export market. We are most hurt by this ruling as cp is right we have very low freight rates and are natural market is west coast by rail to rupert.

These $%^hole freinds of the CWB and the socialist govts to the east of alberta are accoutable for this debacle and do not think we will forget it. Ultimately this may serve the choice fight well as there is not a snow balls chance in hell the CWB is going to pull us out of this with their competency.

I chose not to grow barley and stuck with oats over the uncertainty inpired by the anti freedom fighters. But I do grow winter wheat and spring wheat often for domestic feeding. Note that the wpg feed wheat market has also not recovered from the levels it was trading at before the ruling, same goes for non exchange deals.....this is freaking stupid..and it is us folks down on the farm that are taking it square on the chin....

Chuck and Steve. do not lose your resolve and do whatever is in your reach to free us once and for all!!!!!!!

[wilagro]

Prices offered can be changed at the blink of an eye. Prices can also be artificially MANIPULATED and I believe this is the case in answer to the judicial decision re: CWB and the government. These REACTIVE ups and downs will settle down before long and if barley had a VALUE before the judgement, then it will rally back up. This is all chickenshit politics in motion.

Not much different than the stock market which is most fickle and stock values can change on a rumour or whisper.

[Zaphod]

Barley does have good value right now, but it's mostly based on export demand. The private trade showed farmers the value and they took advantage of it. Tell me how the CWB is planning on showing this value through Pool A and B. The CWB whined last year that farmers "chose" not to sell barley to them. That's because they don't (or can't) show the real value because it might cause the maltsters a problem (or they're just lazy).

But I guess it doesn't matter any more this year. The private traders made export sales of 500-700,000 tonnes of feed barley and the CWB will just take over the sales. That volume was done in 3 months. How much did the CWB sell in 06/07? A total of 165,000 tonnes for the whole year. Now they will sit back and say that all of the sales for 07/08 are complete and farmers "choose" not to sell more barley to them. So they do nothing from April to July, take over someone else's sales and sit on the sidelines for the rest of the year. The CWB's feed barley merchant will have a great year -- triple the sales without doing any of the work and do nothing for the whole rest of the year. Nice work if you can get it.

[charliep]

The Saudi and other business was translated into a market signal right away that farmers could make a decision on. I don't know what you consider real business but 600,000 tonnes off the combine (which the CWB is working with the trade to ensure is fullfilled) is significant. When you consider average domestic feed consumption is about 750,000 per month, this is major competition for the livestock feed industry. More can likely be done ahead of Aussie crop.

Wilagro - Perhaps you can work me through a scenario as to how the CWB would have/will as of August 1 get the market signals to provide this opportunity for farmers? Does an initial payment of $107/tonne port provide an adequate signal? Would the CWB have made the sales/shorted the market they way they did with malt barley? What kind of deals would the CWB have made with the trade in the back rooms - in the past programs have included grain company guaranteed prices, no cost 100 % EPO, etc? Would farmers have signed fixed price contracts that discount the price so the CWB can handle their (not the farmers) pooling risk?

To your comment "This is all chickenshit politics in motion." Will note that the CWB is irrelevant to the domestic feed barley market 95 % of the time. Last years total CWB feed barley program respresented about the same amount of disappearance as 80,000 head of finished cattle. Price discovery is very active and open in Alberta whether you like it or not. The CWB has to be able to provide accurate price signals in this world if they want to be in the feed barley business. If they don't, step aside.

[charliep]

The legacy of the 2007/08 will be an open market that sold 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes of feed barley that moved off the combine at $3.50 to $3.75/bu in a short period of open market and a CWB that shorted the malt market for about the same amount at a price of $3.50 to $3.75/bu (particularly when a farmer includes interest, storage, handling and risk).

[northfarmer]

value of any commodity or stock, in the absence of regulation, govt interference, etc, when traded in an open market will eventually gravitate towards it intrinsic value abritraged by its physical location and currency....so yea things can be manipulated and affected by rumor, but in the end they will move to their real value or intrinsic value if traded openly, otherwise someone loses a pile of money, govt or individual.......that is how supply meets demand, whether it is stocks of a physical commodity,...it is simple econmics.......

the chickenshit politics is the crap you and the friends of the CWB are playing, denying me of my rights in a so called free and just society, you get together with your like minded firends and do whatever the hell you wnat with your crop, leave me do as i please with mine.....

[silverback]

Pretty aggressive language from someone who doesn't even farm anymore W.

Very thoughtful arguments.

[TOM4CWB]

Wilagro,

The CWB "Single Desk" is a tool for the use of COWARDS, who take Chairman Ritters "Gun" and threaten their communities and neighbours with fear.

GREED drives what you do... take what I created, confiscate it, and live off the grace of your neighbour.

Hope you know what you are doing WILAGRO... there will be a day (on the other side of eternity) of accountability for your actions!

[wilagro]

HO...HO...Tom4CWB is now talking FOR God and the Judgement Day Express.

"Hope you know what you are doing WILAGRO... there will be a day (on the other side of eternity) of accountability for your actions!" - Tom4CWB

Sorry, Tom but..."Who died and made you boss?"

"On the other side of eternity"...LOL.

I guess that I will just have to fend for myself or delegate someone else to act on my behalf.

What a crock of beans. I've heard enough for today...time to go check the stock market...must see how my Sask Wheat Pool is doing.

[Burbert]

Wilagro, Thanks to you and us, due process and folks at the NF some sanity has returned to the market place. Of course all the progressive Angriville guys/gals have forward sold for Big, big money and have iron clad contracts with their grain company friens that will destroy the rest of us LOL I say. The open market does however remain a viable choice, wildly bumping and grinding prices, make it look like a crap table at casino royalle. Can't wait for Chuckies next move, probably like in the movies he'll grab a big knife and start threatening everyone, or at least swearing at people. AB gag minister is threatening to get rough and tough and at the same time be friends with everybody Sassammmm Tory magic Pfffff! PC's are so predictable, they are fossils in a real world, barley freedoom day, Pffff!!!!!!