Soft White DPC Aug 8 ??????????

[northernfarmer]

Explain this to me.
August 7th - DPC is $235.54

Chicago is up $0.18 today.
August 8th - DPC is $228.77???

The dollar was up 1/2 cent today, but what the heck???? And reports I hear is the basis is getting better in the US.

Explain this to me please someone

[melvill]

Interesting.
August 8 CBOT Sep SRW futures close
$6.79 @ 95.59CDN = $7.10Cdn/bu

August 7 CBOT Sep SRW futures
$6.62 1/2 @ 95.05CDN = $6.97CDN/bu

Futures changes is US17 cents or Cdn13 cents.

I don't have today's spot basis levels for northern U.S. points but SRW basis levels from yesterday are interesting. Gulf of Mexico SRW spot basis levels were 4 cents under Sep. Gulf Oct basis levels were much weaker at 25 cents under Dec about equal to the spread between Sep and Dec SRW futures.

I'll check tomorrow to see if interior (or Gulf) spot basis levels have changed for SRW.

[melvill]

Oh, oh!!! Messed up in the previous post. Forgot that Gulf basis levels would be "over" CBOT not under. Drank too much of cottonpicken's wheat price wager.

Sep Gulf basis levels were 21 cents over CBOT.

I'll see what tomorrow's interior basis levels are like.

[kamichel]

Fixed price still higher. Hmmm, I suspect heavy selling to the board of fixed prices yesterday. My location looking at near dollar per bushel over feed. That could pressure the daily price down. I wonder if the board is still buying on the fixed price, they have the option to pull the offer. I have some fixed price contract from a month ago when the price was right, but that was before we had the midge outbreak. Now 25 percent of my wheat is toasted from midge.
I am sure the board will not take it without me having to clean it. But what the sample will look like after harvest can only be answered after harvest.

[melvill]

Computer glitch. Can't get today's - Aug 9 - SRW wheat basis levels. I'll try for tomorrow.

[melvill]

Found some recent and not so recent basis levels for U.S. soft white winter wheat at Pacific North West - probably Portland - export position. All quotes off CBOT wheat.
July 19
23 cents over Sep

July 25
14 cents over Sep

July 31
15 cents over Sep

Aug 6
1 cent over Sep

Aug 9
9 cents under Sep

Aug 10
2 cents under Sep

Basis levels at port deteorated quite a bit.

[Incognito]

http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/JO_GR111.txt

[melvill]

Thanks Incognito. Do you know if there's a USDA database of historical cash and basis levels?