Wheat Prices still bullish for next 6 mths

[malleefarmer]

Given the fact that the aust harvest wether it be good or bad will be well fasctored into prices come oct/nov unless of course we have a rain affected harvest.
But after that the only bullish factors can be weather with your planting progress in the northern hemisphere, and what are the chances of you guys having another dry year historically speaking.
A dry one here in aust after a serious drought just doesnt happen , i have records back to 1913 and hasnt happened before until know probably.

[charliep]

Just a note the problem (Alberta province) here has not been drought. We started excessively wet (lots of sloughs), proceeded into a hot dry summer (wouldn't call a drought given lots of top and sub soil moisture) and now have some rain at harvest (farmers here are in a better position to comment about quality). Harvest (at least in the north parts is just barely under way so quality at this point is an unknown. The south is different but will let others comment.

Weather variability is the factor here. Every year seems different which is maybe normal weather but it is making life a challenge.

You have highlighted the supply side. I am also watching the consumption side and trying to sort out the impact of the tight 2007/08 wheat on buyer philosophy/perhaps a desire to store more inventory.

Hopefully we get more discussion about your original topic. People are in the middle of harvest now so farmer participation will be lower than normal.