anybody sell some wheat

[charliep]

Just a note that the CWB has updated their historical charts. I look at these charts regularly.

http://www.cwb.ca/public/en/farmers/producer/historical/

A couple of things I find interesting.

The first is the fact the fixed price basis (should call adjustment) has weakened for the two nearby contracts but has strengthened for May and July. Reflects the widening inverse (old/new crop). Just for discussion, is it more worthwhile to defer the fixed pricing option till later in the year? Obviously weighing off the opportunity presented by some crop problems during the winter versus monster world wheat acres (assuming this happens - all crops are competing for acres this year). Also considering how wide this inverse can get versus when/if it snaps back to something more normal.

Just raising for discussion.

[charliep]

Likely for another thread but also note how closely the DPC is following the FPC - almost as if it is being managed to do this. The DPC and the FPC seem to be managed to take out the volatility (read pricing opportunity) that US farmers are getting. Perhaps an indication that CWB contingency fund took a major bath on the DPC program in 2006/07 (annual report will be intersting).

Equally of interest to me would be to have the producer direct sale price (available only with a phone call) graphed along side the FPC and DPC.

[NeilS]

Crusher

Sad to say, no currency hedge by me. Non the less, I am satisfied with my net $6.90 per bu for my wheat.

[parsley]

Oh charliep,

The producer direct sale buyback price is an arbitrary figure pulled out of an Easter type hat by a Orchard bunny type, on certain days and setting certain prices.

Prices can change by the minute, or by the buyer.

Perhaps the chart you speak of would have to reflect the buyback price of the folks the CWB likes and another chart that reflects buybacks that the CWB dislikes, as there is a PERCEIVED difference between the two.

The chart showing the difference in buyback prices between Board lovers and Board haters would be the valuable one.

.....That is, if the difference exists, other than in the minds of over 50% of those surveyed in the DA who now WANT TO DUMP THE CWB.

Parsley


btw, that number will go up. 70% next time. What say?