Average Crop?

[craig]

I see AFSC has come out and predicted an average crop for cereals and oilseeds this year. What am I missing?
We are currently estimating a barley crop of about 2/3 of normal and still a guess on canola but would think 3/4 of normal would be optomistic. What no one seems to be talking about is the fact that the areas impacted by the extremely wet spring are also the high yield producing areas of the province. We seeded late and the crop in low lying areas is late, thin and under weed pressure. Add hot dry conditions in the south and how you come up with average crop is beyond me. While I understand Stats Canada not getting it right, I question how AFSC with crop adjusters in the field can be so far off base.

[SASKFARMER3]

Our Idiot Terry Baby at Sask AG and Food and her bunch of Crop Adjusters are so off the mark its not even funny. They keep talking about the Quality of the 07 crop and have really never ever talked about yields just the fact that with higher prices farmers will have an average crop. Well take nine canola and six last fall and this years yields and guess their right I will have same money as last year.
This 07 crop is a total disaster in Saskatchewan and for once I wish the powers that be would just call a spade a spade. Its a Below average crop Across the board.
Examples of Yield.
South of #1 HRS 15-25 straw for 50
Canola 12-26
North of #1 to Yellow Head
HRS - 20-30 Canola 17-27
North of 16 look out tonight the late fields will be frost.
Have a great average day Terry.

[crusher]

I think I'll be average NE of Edmonton. Lost about 1% of acres to wet ground, not too seious. Peas close to 60 and winter wheat about the same. Combine has been parked for a week, but should have 400 acres of winter wheat in by the end of the day.

[charliep]

Not to defend the system of which I am a part but will note the market (including Canada) is not focused so much on the supply side. Grain supplies here at home and around the world are tight regardless of Canadian crop size. My attention is focused on quality (where the highest prices are) and the consumption size. The July 31 stocks report released next Tuesday and the supporting Canadian disappearance numbers will be interesting and provide guidance for the coming year. Regardless of crop size, carryovers will be small on July 31, 2008 with farmer decisions about delivery patterns the biggest deteminant versus market needs the determining factor.

Off topic but you should also be following ocean freight rates. Have short higher (currently over US $80/tonne west or double a year ago) at almost the same rate as wheat prices.