Mallee farmer, Aussy Drought

[NeilS]

If you still visit this forum, I would appreciate an update on your and Australia's current crop prospects.

We hear that parts of your country are still affected by drought and prospects are for a reduced production, compared to earlier projections.

How is your personal situation? What about national production? Is the 18 MT wheat projection I hear about realistic?

[TOM4CWB]

NeilS,

Here is a recent report I have gleaned:

The Australian Bureau of Agriculture forecast production at 22.5 million tonnes in August. The next forecast is released September 18.

Dry conditions occurred in August and early September.

Analysts projections for wheat production now range between 17.5 and 19.5 million tonnes. If rains are not received soon, crops will decline further.

Australia’s harvest begins in the later part of October.
Asian and Middle Eastern nations were expecting to cover winter needs from Australia. However, if production is near 19.0 million tonnes, the Ausies will be able to supply their core markets only.

Argentina and Northern Hemisphere nations are the only alternative.

Australia’s production prospects will be the dominant force in the wheat market over coming weeks.

If Ausie production is forecast at 20.0 million tonnes or more,
futures should be expected to have reached this season’s highs.

If Ausie production falls below 17.0 million tonnes, the bull market could
continue into the later fall.

[parsley]

Got an email from a maltster in England on the weekend.

He says, "EU FOB malting barley prices at the equivalent to USD385/tonne".

Any comments?

Parsley

[malleefarmer]

Yeah still alive posting only briefly.
Make no mistake aust crop is in trouble the forecast rain event everybody was pinning hopes on came and went without a wimper we got1/10 of an inch.With cool weather and limited precipitation i will expect to harvest 50% of my average if it comes hot and dry will be less much less if we score some decent falls in the next 2 weeks could be as high as 70% of average
Some guys are worse than last year,but WA after a ver late start is now only looking below average vic and NSW is in trouble but a bit like my situation rain would save the day but every day that goes by yeild potential drops further
Many private crop forecasters say 17mill tonne is absolute tops no more

sorry will post a bit more often didnt realize i was missed lol.....

[malleefarmer]

This is from our rural weekly newpaper and area mentioned is about 400 to 450 kms away


A dry end to winter and a run of hot, northerly winds in recent weeks threatens to totally derail the cropping season for producers across western and upper Eyre Peninsula, SA.

Wheat and barley crops, which make up the majority of the region's overall harvest, are now in need of urgent falls before the end of spring if yields are going to be any better than the disappointing 2006 harvest.

Around Kimba, farmers are still hopeful of a worthwhile spring and summer reap.

But further north to the semi-marginal areas around Buckleboo, many crops will not be harvested, with cereal paddocks across the district now offering little more than grazing feed for stock.

Peas have also been adversely affected, with a run of frosts reducing predicted yields.

However, many farmers' burdens will be eased with valuable cash flow secured from the spring and summer turn off of prime lambs.

While throughout the 1990s many producers moved towards continuous cropping, the value of retaining a mixed-farm enterprise incorporating wool or prime lambs is increasing in light of the prevailing dry conditions

[melvill]

Can't remember if this has been posted before or not. These are Aussie (or Aussy) precip maps. They're great. They give historical comparisons as well as daily and weekly amounts.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/rainmaps.cgi?page=indexa&area=aus

[parsley]

Of course we miss you when you do not post malleefarmer!

Yours, that Australian warmth, will be the only warmth we will be getting from now on, as it froze last night, and it is even maybe going to snow today.

We need LOL

Parsley

[melvill]

Hey, parsley, you said the forecast for tonight is snow? Thought your farm was in Sask. not Yukon, which, BTW I've visited and it's beautiful.

[parsley]

The you will be a good guide if I decide to go!

Rhino, mule or plane?

Parsley

[TOM4CWB]

Mallee,

I got this e-mail from a freind,

"Saturday from Neil Wandel in Australia:

...We had a good start to season but cannot get a finishing rain to fill out our crops. We have lost alot of our potential but could still get average with a bit of luck. A big percentage of Aussy is going back into drought if it does not rain in next 2 weeks 50% of Aussy farmers will only harvest their seed back. Everyone has overestimated size of our crop down here. We are currently seeing record prices offered for grain especially barley and canola. We sold feed barley last week for 400$ tonne at farm gate for Nov delivery which is 430$ FOB -- exactly double what we budgeted for. The barley market is deregulated now in Aussy and competition has really lifted prices offered to growers."