Barley markets continue to skyrocket

[Fransisco]

Straight as an arrow willy.

Its competition that keeps everyone honest and gets everyone a fair price.

[charliep]

Perhaps the most interesting questions for me are international feed barley marketing opportunities/prices being accurately reflected in the domestic feed markets? I ask this question because 75 % of barley produced in western is fed to the local livestock industry.

From the malt side, are enough market signals being provided farmers so they can make an informed decision about whether it is worthwhile to take a sample to a domestic maltster/grain grain company for selection versus simply selling to the domestic feed market on the farmers individual time table?

[AdamSmith]

Bottineau Farmers Elevator

Today's barley bids are $4.75 a bushel

Same price feed or malt.

Bottineau Bids Basis Cash
Milling Spring Wheat Sep 30, 07 -0.99 6.98
HRW Wheat Sep 30, 07 -1.34 6.73
Milling Durum Sep 30, 07 -173.70 10.50
Terminal Durum #2 HAD Sep 30, 07 0.00 9.80
Terminal Durum #3 HAD Sep 30, 07 0.00 9.30
Terminal Durum #4 HAD Sep 30, 07 0.00 8.30
Oats Sep 30, 07 -0.46 2.10
Corn Sep 30, 07 -0.53 3.00
Oil Sunflowers Sep 30, 07 0.00 16.00
NuSun Sunflowers Sep 30, 07 0.00 17.00
Canola Sep 30, 07 0.00 16.61
Peas Sep 30, 07 0.00 5.75
Flax Sep 30, 07 0.00 10.00
Soybeans Sep 30, 07 -1.72 8.00
RBST Barley Sep 30, 07 -179.45 4.75
Conlin Barley Sep 30, 07 -179.45 4.75
Feed Barley Sep 30, 07 -179.45 4.75
New Crop Flax Sep 30, 07 -8.07 0.00
New Crop Oil Sfs Oct 31, 07 0.00 14.90
New Crop NuSun Oct 31, 07 0.00 15.40
Lacey Barley Sep 30, 07 -179.45 4.75
Legecy Barley Sep 30, 07 -179.45 4.75
New Crop Soybeans Sep 30, 07 -9.72 0.00

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By the way that Canola price is per hundred weight.

And notice that milling durum price of $10.50


The price of grain is truly skyrocketing,

except for wheat and barley on the prairies.

[AdamSmith]

I also read where the Husky Energy is paying $6 a bushel for feed wheat delivered in Jan.into Minnedosa MB.

And again what part of having strong buying competion is bad for farmers? Willy? Agstar?

[kamichel]

6 dollars? And I sold my soft wheat to the board for 4.68 net to me and will more likely have to take a .4 deduction for 3 and feed. Plus they will charge me 1.7 per bushel to give them the 15 percent midge damage, guess I could clean it. Not sure if the ethanol plant would want the screenings.
Charlie I agree with you 100 percent that the board fails to connect the farmers to the end users.
There was another thread about why Canola is lagging behind the soy oil and meal price. Perhaps it is because there is no direct competition from wheat and barley.

[kamichel]

Any chance I could get a dollar premium for delivery of feed?

[kamichel]

You know its not like the board presold any feed wheat, is that even possible? So why should I be stuck with .4 deduction for feed when feed is worth even more. Last year the deduction was 15 cents this year is 40 cents. The CWB should do some business as unusual and deduct less.

[TOM4CWB]

Wilagro,

Your "Twisted" response speaks volumes.

Are you buying grain... and need low prices? If not, What is your logic?

[craig]

No one is commenting on the fact that I believe a lot of this years barley crop is already sold by producers. With lots of reports of disappointing barley yields coming from the main barley producing areas it is likely that producers will need all of their production to meet their committments. A positive for the feed market is that it is becoming less likely everyday that barley not already in the bin will make malt grade.

[tower]

Adam Smith, you wrote "And again what part of having strong buying competion is bad for farmers?" I just thought I'd mention that I don't see any more competition than I saw last year, what I see is less grain around. I'm pretty sure that's what is driving the markets.

Craig, you wrote, "A positive for the feed market is that it is becoming less likely everyday that barley not already in the bin will make malt grade."

Would that be a positive for the buyers side of the market?

[AdamSmith]

Tower wrote "I just thought I'd mention that I don't see any more competition than I saw last year, what I see is less grain around."

Well Tower here is what I was talking about. The Minnedosa upgrade to 130 million liter per year, that coupled with the Loydminister 130 million liter per year plant that came on line last year, makes for new competition or new demand for farmers grain.

------------------------------------
Minnedosa Ethanol
Husky is a pioneer in the production and marketing of ethanol-blended fuels, and has plans to become Western Canada’s largest ethanol producer. The Company’s first ethanol plant was built in 1981 in Minnedosa, Manitoba and produces 10 million litres of ethanol for fuel and industrial use. During the process distillers dried grain with solubles (DDGS) is also produced – a high-grade protein feed sold to livestock producers. Feedstock for the plant comes primarily from wheat purchased from local producers.

Ethanol is a clean burning fuel that can improve engine performance and reduce tailpipe emissions. At Husky and Mohawk retail outlets ethanol-blended gasoline is marketed under the name Mother Nature’s Fuel.

New opportunities became available when the Saskatchewan and Manitoba governments announced plans to mandate the use of ethanol-blended gasoline in their provinces. Anticipating this decision, Husky initiated construction of a new facility on the site of its existing plant. The new plant which will have a production capacity of 130 million litres per year of ethanol will be completed in late 2007. A second 130 million litres per year ethanol plant was completed in mid-2006 at Lloydminster, Saskatchewan.

----------------------------------

But if you can't see it, you can't see it!

The point is tower there are great marketing opportunities galore for farmers and those opportunities exist within the structure of a free market system.

You and your fellow horsemen all focus on the "possible" negative implications of moving wheat and barley into the free market arena. Yet you never seem to be able to quantify those concerns into dollar amounts. Those attempts to quantify (the U of S so called studies)have been unconvincing at best and pure speculative drivel at worst. But even if we were to acknowledge the conclusions of those "studies", the dollars lost this year alone under the single desk system negate ten years of Schmitz and Gray advantage.

Tower, how long do you think the cwb and it's directors can ignore the current market reality and ignore the all the opportunities that "could become" available to farmers if we were to move to a free market competitive buying system?

Also Tower, how much patience do you think farmers have for the cwb's excuses in today's market climate?

[Fransisco]

Tower said, "I just thought I'd mention that I don't see any more competition than I saw last year, what I see is less grain around. I'm pretty sure that's what is driving the markets."

Check out slide number six in this PowerPoint presentation, it's about a 2mb file so patience if you're on dial up.

http://www.uswheat.org/USWPublicDocs.nsf/a280b21ba0e2ea9385256f3900554e60/8825d305340ac1cd85257355004dd54b

You'll see that steadily increasing <b>demand</b> is the reason why we have the lowest stocks in 30 years. There is less wheat around because more people want it. Current prices are a reflection of all of these people <b>competing</b> for a product of which there is currently not enough of to meet the demand.

Got a bit of a problem figuring out cause and effect relationships there don't you tower.

[silverback]

Tower also never answered whether or not he would agree that a farmers own product belongs to the farmer or the cwb.

Maybe he thinks that my grain is his grain and he is better at deciding what it is worth for my family.

[Fransisco]

Actually he kind of did this is towers twisted view of ownership <blockquote>"if I as a member of the Canadian Wheat board, not the Board of Directors, sell to the board then so long as the board still possesses it I as a member still possess it. Perhaps it's one of these new ideas floating around about taking possession by being involved.</blockquote>

He ignores the facts that he cannot sell it to anyone else, that he has no choice but to be a member of the board, and somebody else pulls the sales trigger. But other than that its still his grain.

Oy vie!

[parsley]

Read Sarah McLachlan's "Possession" lyrics .


Sounds to me like he is possessed by the CWB.

Parsley