THE Federal Government's official agricultural forecaster has estimated an 11 million tonne drop in Australia's winter grain crop - with the biggest losses in South Australia and NSW.
The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Research Economics today released its latest crop forecast as drought grips much of southern Australia.
"Winter grain production in 2007-08 is forecast to total 25.6 million tonnes," the forecast said.
"Even though this amount is well above last year's drought affected crop, it will be around 27 per cent below the five-year average."
The forecast for Australia's largest crop - wheat - has dropped seven million tonnes on June estimates, to 15.5 million tonnes.
Barley production is forecast to climb from last year to about 5.9 million tonnes while canola production is estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, a massive 24 per cent below the five-year average.
"The biggest decline in yield potential has occurred in NSW and South Australia, reflecting below to very much below average winter rainfall and virtually no September rainfall to date," the forecast said.
"The extremely dry conditions have been accompanied by above average daytime temperatures and gusty winds in many areas, placing additional pressure on moisture stressed crops."
The forecast said South Australia's crops had suffered dramatically in August and September.
"Late August was defined by lack of rain, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds, which resulted in crops losing significant yield potential in most districts as soil moisture reserves declined."
In NSW, the central and southern wheat belt were hit hardest by the dry winter.
"Above average temperatures in addition to the lack of rainfall have significantly reduced yield potential of most crops, particularly in the central west and southern cropping belt."
While NSW and SA were singled out by the forecaster, other states fared little better.
"Following one of the best starts to the winter cropping season in a number of years, conditions across much of Victoria over the past month have deteriorated, following below to very much below average August rainfall," the forecast said.
The whole of Victoria is able to access the federal government's exceptional circumstances financial assistance, giving a sign of how difficult conditions are throughout the state.
In Western Australia, rain has arrived too late.
"Total winter rainfall across the Western Australian grains belt has been below average," the forecast said.
"However, crop prospects remain in a better position than in the previous year."
ABARE said the only state still looking good was Queensland.
"Most of Queensland's cropping regions recorded above average rainfall during August, with the exception of central Queensland, which received average rainfall.
"Further rainfall was received in some areas in early September.
"This has significantly improved yield potential in most regions, especially for late planted crops, with the exception of some areas in the south-west of the state's cropping regions, where the rainfall was too late to improve prospects."
The Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Research Economics today released its latest crop forecast as drought grips much of southern Australia.
"Winter grain production in 2007-08 is forecast to total 25.6 million tonnes," the forecast said.
"Even though this amount is well above last year's drought affected crop, it will be around 27 per cent below the five-year average."
The forecast for Australia's largest crop - wheat - has dropped seven million tonnes on June estimates, to 15.5 million tonnes.
Barley production is forecast to climb from last year to about 5.9 million tonnes while canola production is estimated at 1.1 million tonnes, a massive 24 per cent below the five-year average.
"The biggest decline in yield potential has occurred in NSW and South Australia, reflecting below to very much below average winter rainfall and virtually no September rainfall to date," the forecast said.
"The extremely dry conditions have been accompanied by above average daytime temperatures and gusty winds in many areas, placing additional pressure on moisture stressed crops."
The forecast said South Australia's crops had suffered dramatically in August and September.
"Late August was defined by lack of rain, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds, which resulted in crops losing significant yield potential in most districts as soil moisture reserves declined."
In NSW, the central and southern wheat belt were hit hardest by the dry winter.
"Above average temperatures in addition to the lack of rainfall have significantly reduced yield potential of most crops, particularly in the central west and southern cropping belt."
While NSW and SA were singled out by the forecaster, other states fared little better.
"Following one of the best starts to the winter cropping season in a number of years, conditions across much of Victoria over the past month have deteriorated, following below to very much below average August rainfall," the forecast said.
The whole of Victoria is able to access the federal government's exceptional circumstances financial assistance, giving a sign of how difficult conditions are throughout the state.
In Western Australia, rain has arrived too late.
"Total winter rainfall across the Western Australian grains belt has been below average," the forecast said.
"However, crop prospects remain in a better position than in the previous year."
ABARE said the only state still looking good was Queensland.
"Most of Queensland's cropping regions recorded above average rainfall during August, with the exception of central Queensland, which received average rainfall.
"Further rainfall was received in some areas in early September.
"This has significantly improved yield potential in most regions, especially for late planted crops, with the exception of some areas in the south-west of the state's cropping regions, where the rainfall was too late to improve prospects."
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