Australian Canola Crop is in Trouble!

[SASKFARMER3]

Not only is the Canadian Canola Crop a Dud in 2007 for yield.
Look at the Latest pictures from the Australian Canola Crop. I figure a rain wont help this crop any more the damage is done, Look at the pictures and farmers you judge the crop.

http://www.australianoilseeds.com/agronomy_centre/the_virtual_canola_site/horsham_200708_crop

I said it was going down hill!

Canola will be in demand come Nov, Dec then the US will explain how poor the Soybean crop is doing.
Then by march we will have a handle on Brazil's soybeans.
Canola could go!

[TOM4CWB]

Sask,

We took it on the Chin on our Canola in July... worse than this... and still came up with close to an average of 30bu/ac.

I don't see why this crop won't do the same... unless it goes to 45C!

[SASKFARMER3]

Look at the flower blast dropped leaves and curled pods. Their damage is worse than here. Plus your lucky with your 30 bus most in south Sask is 07 - 23.
and Alberta froze our crop will not average out good either. Big yielding areas of N Manitoba Sask, etc their is no 55 - 60 this year. lots of 25 - 30

[kamichel]

Gotta admit that that canola crop looks not bad to me also. Actually been flowering for more than 5 weeks. Since this is still winter for them that is likely normal. When I was in china the stuff flowered over 2 months. In Canada we have declining temps as the Canola matures. In Australia they have rising temps as the canola matures , that may make a big diff.

[SASKFARMER3]

well two against one I guess you guys win.
Ill check next Monday as a new picture is downloaded.
Last year they had three farms and it was really a interesting way to judge the drought. To bad the Canola association of Canada doesn't get something like this up and running.

[melvill]

This evaluation of the Aussie canola crop by looking at a few pictures reminds me of clients, who phone me expecting prices to be going up because the crops they see though their livingroom window or on the drive to town to get the mail, see yield damage. Now if there were many pictures evenly distributed over the large Aussie canola growing area, I'd be more included to believe what I saw.

Remember, too, that a big chunk of the bad news about Aussie crops is already in the market. Most of the traders knew what those pictures showed before or the same day they were posted. Continued crop stress that reduces yield below what's already believed is needed to add more fuel to the market. Remember, a bull has to be fed new hay every day. So does a bull market.

[SASKFARMER3]

Melville I do Agree that every one looks at their crop and figures their is no grain around, not looking at the whole picture. What I am trying to say is the whole market is focusing on Wheat and the lower yields that are coming, I am say maybe we should start looking at again Australia not having as much canola and the winter months may prove beneficial to those that have canola to move.

[melvill]

Saskfarmer3, I agree. We need to watch the Aussy canola crop closely. It's still quite a while 'till harvest there so there's time for yield loss. I also tend to agree that holding canola 'till after the new year could pay pretty well. My biggest worry is that growers will get too bullish and want astronomical prices that just won't happen.