Paradigm Shift

[cottonpicken]

11.50-flax
13.50-durum
25.00-yellow mustard
7.00-peas
12.00-lentils
6.10-barley
8.16-wheat
etc
etc
etc.....

Bad times are Over!

[FarmRanger]

Please post where you sell durum at $13.50

I'd like to unload some at that price, but can't seem to find a buyer.
Thanks.

[Fransisco]

I'm curious about the $8.16 wheat. I can find it on the US side of the border but not in Canuckistan.

[cottonpicken]

Oh right farming is still in the shitter because of the cwb.

[Zaphod]

I guess it's predictable. Every time, prices are great, they're never going to drop. And when they're in the toilet, they'll never get better. Shouldn't this "paradigm" have at least a year or so behind it before it's proclaimed the new world order, rather than just a couple of months? This is the kind of thinking that gets people to spend like there is no tomorrow rather than putting a few shekels away for a rainy day. I expected better from someone who declares their predictions infallible.

[SASKFARMER3]

There is one thing that farmers who have a decent crop and can get some decent prices should do. Thats pay off as much debt as possible. Then look at rebuilding your savings, Forget about getting into a pi--ing match with a neighbor over a quarter or section of land. Dont by any new equipement unless you have to because the equipment vultures are circling.
Because when the BOOM BOOM is slowing down you become the one in control and can do what ever you like.

[Fransisco]

No one disagreed with your premise cotton. This is indeed the year of the grain farmer.

We just don't believe the wheat prices you posted are available to Canadian farmers. If they are just show us. There is no need to get your knickers in a knot.

[charliep]

Weather and fight for acres this spring will make things very interesting. This is demonstrated in corn by the fact carry right out into new crop. Soybeans have a small inverse. Wheat has a big inverse (although $6 to $7/bu wheat is still a good price. If a person is bullish price, what about the loonie increase relative to the US buck - will it continue? Don't think it will happen but what about a loonie that is equal to USD $1.10 or heavan forbid USD $1.25?

[wd9]

Paradigm Shift is a fundamental change in our understanding of how something works to create a desired end result.

Cotton, what change in understanding has created these prices? Or is it actually just a grain shortage with strong demand to stocks use that will "paradigm shift" again next year.

[jensend]

i think the paradigm shift is in oil prices and that will roll inflation right through the economy. grain prices are up and will stay higher than they were the last few years but probably not as high as this year as the ethanol and biofuel enthusiasm fades. i just wonder how it will work with consumers more heavily indebted than ever. they don't have the flexibility or capacity to pay more for everything so what sectors will suffer from reduced spending? is this a wave of euphoria before the big one? i don't know but the next few years look to be fairly volatile economically.

[Zaphod]

I agree that the oil price situation is a key change. How long it will last, nobody knows. I'm still not convinced it's permanent. I heard someone smarter than I am (that could be just about anybody) talk about $40 a barrel the other day. What happens then? I personally think this high grain price environment has another year or so as the acreage battle Charlie mentioned will keep prices up. I'm just not convinced about the new paradigm (I've heard it from a number of people). I may be old school but I think the cycles are going to continue. Don't forget, people are most bullish right at the top -- that's what gets it there. Is this a top now? I don't know, and we'll never know for sure until it's long past (because we probably won't admit it until prices have lost a dollar or two a bushel).

[jensend]

i think cycles have been lengthened/flattened by the scale of individual operators in the industry and the technology being used. i think oil prices will drop from where we are but the trend will remain higher and prices of products won't drop back as dramatically.

[cottonpicken]

I agree guys,it is definately a cycle type thing but it has a long way to go.

The "paradigm" is proper management when everything has changed.Higher input costs,higher incomes,shortage of labour,volital interest rates,machinery inflation,land inflation and the tax man are going to make farming as fun as ever but generally keeping your head above water should be easier than it has been since 83'.The key is to maximize these good times.

I'm to young to remember the 70's but i'm guessing very few people were exiting farming during that time(maybe some of the older guys will correct me on this).

Back to the cycle there are a lot of things driving it.Peak oil,monetary inflation,7 billion souls,urban spraul,desertification,weather pattern shifts,war and satellite t.v.

Some social commontarity types say that the world "really" changed in the mid 90's with the introduction of satellite t.v..It may sound silly to us but for the first time ever the 5 billion have nots of the world were able to see on t.v what the other billion or so had.And they wanted it.

So were back to square one,one gang of cave men fighting another over the local watering hole.

[Zaphod]

Interesting. I was wondering where the satellite tv thing came in. I would probably lump the internet in with that. Same reason.

No argument that the cycle may last longer than usual, but I was surprised how fast we came off the 2006 lows. Is it possible that it could tip over that fast too?

[DogPatch]

Grain prices are great...... We best not forget that the hog and cattle industry is still in the can. We better remember who bought our light feed barley, frozen wheat Fusarium grains when the world prices were in the tank. Its no different that hay prices when the drought was on.

Some of the best local markets are still in danger because low commodity prices.