Fertilizer Hedge?

[crusher]

What's the best fertilizer strategy?

1) Buy the fertilizer now (can't, I use NH3 & direct seed)

2) Buy Agrium shares. Fertilizer prices are not likely to go down, but natural gas is low, therefore should make good margins

3) Buy natural gas, contracts are pretty big though

4) Let her ride

5) Other?

[SASKFARMER3]

Here is my thought on Fertilizer.
One corn was king this year and yes the Fert Companies had an excuse to increase prices.
We got clipped by over 10 cents a lb to much in Canada on 82-0-0
But that needs fed gov checking not me.
So now its fall 07 look at the companies prices, very little drop on all fert compared to past years.
Now back to Corn, Ethanol in trouble in USA unless gov comes up with a new strategy acres will be way down. Soybeans will be crop of choice next year for US farmers.
So lock in fall Canola prices on any steep rise.
Second I believe ride out the Fert because next spring price will be similar to what it is right now. or a little lower.
For Canad seeding next year will be south- Durum and Flax lentils
North- Hrs and Canola
All canola acres that Canola council convinced to seed this year in Southern Sask will go back to Flax next year. Simply Canada need for Nitrogen will be less next year also.

[brian99]

You missed one crop Saskfarmer. What about barley? With lower corn acre numbers and still strong demand, and weak barley acres here, barley price might stay where it is. I know there's alot of press about ethanol plants halting construction, but the numbers tell a different story. Ethanol production continues to grow at 5% a month. That's alot of corn.

[wilagro]

I reject the Alberta Alliance Opposition's report and their whole movement as well. What a bunch of twits.

Why don't we just give the resources to the oil companies and eliminate all that tedious bookwork? One cent on the dollar royalties as we have now...what a bunch of crappola. Ralph Klein should have been banished to some lonely isolated part of Canada like...ummm...errr...Saskatchewan for not increasing the royalty scheme while he was Premier.

[Lifer]

So I gather Wilagro that you are opposed to the following principles.

The Alliance Party suggests that we should be what Albertans want us to be and that is deal-keepers.

It is the underlying belief of the Alliance Party that money in the hands of business and people is far better spent than in the hands of government.

I don't understand when you make a statement that rejects a whole movement.