Noodling about canola marketing

[chaffmeister]

Just wondering what folks are doing when it comes to canola marketing this year.

- Biggest deliveries YTD to week 10 in at least 6 years – 1.9 million tonnes
- Biggest elevator inventories for week 10 in at least 6 years - 1.3 million tonnes
- Big futures spreads – May at $27 ($0.61 per bu) premium to Nov, July at $31 ($0.70 per bu) premium
- Spot cash prices over $9.00/bu – deferred delivery prices around $10 (or they were…are they still?)

Seems to me that typical selling and delivery patterns may be a bit different this year. History has shown us that when prices are low, farmers tend to sell very little forward (equivalent to buyers buying hand to mouth), and when prices are higher, farmers tend to sell more forward (at least in the spring for fall delivery). Now we have historically strong prices in the fall PLUS attractive carrying charges into the spring.

Are you selling on delivery?
Or are you selling now for spring delivery, capturing the carrying charges (premiums for future delivery)?

Just wondering?

[TOM4CWB]

Chaff,

We are selling both for fall and spring delivery... I.P. contracts require us to sell throughout the year.

Did some off the March and May futures last week... Nov. sales were done in the first stage of marketing for planned cash flow.

[just_wondering]

sold a whack of canola yesterday to pay for fertilizer for new crop

offset position buy buying 470 futures with sell orders if it goes up 25 scaled up to $35 tonne no stop losses yet!
break even on those acres of Canola was over $15.00 bu. if you figure 17bu/acre just trying to stop the bleeding.
Any body trading on stats Canada's Canola # is going to get crushed.
There is no way Canadian acres are going to average 27. and no way that average is going to get to 15 million acres unless you count the guys in the Peace combining next spring.

We are looking at putting out a bid on some canola acres for $10.00bu. new crop

[cottonpicken]

Canola looks like an easy double from here(within the next six months).IMO.

[craig]

We finished most of my canola harvesting late and came off real dry. Since there is good carry in the market our plans are to forward price and carry to spring. I suspect in our area most will move canola earlier as those without dryers harvested canola first a border line moisture levels. may depend on if we see some price pressure in the marketplace. Indications are companies are getting lots of canola as basis is widening.

[wedino]

Cotton, >Canola looks like an easy double from here(within the next six months).IMO.<

Care to enter into a little wager? 40oz?

[cottonpicken]

You're on.

[wedino]

If WCE Canola hits $874 anytime from today(Oct. 17, 2007) & Apr. 17, 2008, I'll deliver a 40 of your choice. Name your poison, Captain Morgan Dark rum works for me.

[cottonpicken]

Shmirnoff vodka will do for me.Were both in south east sask right?Shouldnt be a problem finding one another.

[wedino]

I'm at Midale, I believe you're at Weyburn, a mere 30 miles.

[cottonpicken]

Off topic but isnt our area of the province kickin sum ass with all the development going on.

[parsley]

The Bakken Pool is.

[padron]

It's like herdin' cats. You had their attention for a little while Chaffy.

[kamichel]

How about if Canola hits 874 anytime we all bring a 40. I'll bring my new 5th wheel so I won't be driving.

[wedino]

Agreed re: Bakken formation, RM's can't keep up, roads are a mess, I've more gravel chips on my pickup this year than I would in 3 years of normal driving. Nice to see the activity!