FPC Deadline 2 Weeks Today - Strategies?

[charliep]

Just a note two weeks today will be the deadline to sign up an fpc or at least book a basis. What factors are you following/strategies you likely to use? Is there a risk the CWB sign up will be so large over the next week and the CWB will shut the program down early? When there is some risk (discussion in another thread) that the October PRO will come down, will you consciously make decisions before October 27 (PRO day) or will you wait till after?

Slightly off topic but what creative/innovative things are malt barley exporters/maltsters doing to attract deliveries?

[charliep]

Thought I would toss up the MGEX charting tool for old/new crop spreads.

http://www.mgex.com/charts.html?page=mspreads

I highlight the assumptions around the old/new crop inverse are critical both as you analyze the PRO (delivery patterns do influence the PRO as noted by the decline at the end of 2006/07) and whether or not to sign an fpc.

It may also influence the month you choose to do a basis contract. Will note the basis stabalizes the fpc contract around the PRO.

To demonstrate, the inverse (old crop premium over new crop) has mostly been between zero and 50 cents) but was over $2/bu during September/early October and has slid back to $1.50/bu.

[parsley]

Western farmers are simply asking for what Eastern farmers already enjoy.

Onatarians, naturally, don't give a ratis assis about the issue...they have that bird in the hand, and the CFA's comments merely reflect their contentment.

Parsley

[Fransisco]

Label's are a major issue and the Wheat Board is not?

The CFA reminds me of the south end of a north bound moose.

[jensend]

labels will be a major issue with consumers as we watch the neverending recalls of meat for bacteria south of the border. it's looking like the food safety measures in the usa have been weakened and consumers will notice this and want accurate labels for contents and cool.

[Fransisco]

There is nothing in the CFA release about food safety. I think it probably has more to do with the supply managed folks getting uppity about folks blending things into ice cream and butters.

Gotta keep ramping up those artificial trade barriers so the Dairy folks don't have to make an honest buck.

[Kodiak]

This press release from the CFA demonstrates just how irrelevant they are. “Programs” are important, and allowing farmers to maximize returns from the marketplace is not?!?! Good grief, these guys are really stuck in Eugene Whelan’s 1970’s.

The CFA never met a government program, tariff, quota, regulation, subsidy, or handout they didn’t love. (Except the ones that don’t measure up to their fantasies when it comes to the size of government cheques). I guess that’s what gives them a reason to exist. The more they can convince government that farmers need programs, the more important they think they are.

Their attitude of omnipotence is a bit misplaced. While they shill for the privileged in the dairy and feather industries, they trod on the legitimate economic rights of the vast silent majority of farmers. It’s not only iniquitous, its arrogance and self-righteousness at its worst.

If the CFA actually brought forward a blueprint for prosperity and growth for the ENTIRE agriculture industry, they might get some respect. But when they’re so transparent in terms of who’s ox they’re willing to gore in order to maintain the self-serving privilege of a few, they can’t help but earn the disdain of self reliant farmers everywhere.

[Steve_Winkler]

That's the million dollar question isn't it Charlie. I missed the one day I had to lock in $7/bu wheat and watched in angst as the market went limit down a few times in the past weeks. I say one day because until I had confirmation on the grading of my CWRS I couldn't risk the discounts a 3 or feed would bring with a FPC relative to the strong non-board feed offers that were also available. Glad to see the rally on Friday with wheat limit up and a chance to do some at $6.50/ bu. The question is how much?? The way info travels these days and the sheer number of people with long and short positions in wheat makes for some tough decision making. I suppose I should be elated due to the fact I've never sold wheat for so much, but if waiting 24 hrs can net you 30 more cents/bu ...

I think I gotta sell some before the weekend is over and see what Monday brings.

Steve