Oct 2007 CWB Wheat PRO... What will it do?

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

I see the USDA has a good daily site with grain prices @ http://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/BL_GR110.txt

BL_GR110
Billings, MT Wed Oct 24, 2007 USDA Market News

Closing elevator bids: Compared to Tuesday, Winter Wheat 27 to 30 cents lower;
Spring Wheat 26 to 30 lower; Durum Wheat 2.00 lower; Feed Barley mostly steady;
Malt Barley steady. Wheat prices are in dollars per bushel.

*Montana cash prices*
US 1 Hard Red Winter Wheat US 1 Durum
Ordinary 11 pct 12 pct 13 pct 13 pct
Billings Area 7.71-8.03 7.83-8.23 7.95-8.25 8.01-8.27
Golden Triangle 8.04-8.17 8.04-8.17 8.08-8.22 8.16-8.28 15.50
Great Falls Area 7.94-8.03 8.07-8.13 8.11-8.21 8.20-8.29
Northcentral Mt 7.95-8.14 8.01-8.19 8.10-8.21 8.16-8.23
Northeast Mt 7.84-7.99 7.90-8.05 7.95-8.10 8.02-8.17 15.50
Southeast Mt 7.49-7.96 7.49-8.02 7.55-8.07 7.59-8.14
Southwest Mt nb nb 8.39 nb

US 1 Dark Northern Spring Wheat US 1 Soft White
13 pct 14 pct 15 pct Wheat
Billings Area 8.01-8.14 8.13-8.30 8.13-8.38
Golden Triangle 8.37 8.22-8.37 8.22-8.37
Great Falls Area 8.18-8.29 8.18-8.29 8.18-8.29
Northcentral Mt 8.18-8.25 8.19-8.26 8.19-8.26
Northeast Mt 8.04-8.24 8.04-8.24 8.04-8.24
Southeast Mt 7.61-8.13 7.61-8.13 7.61-8.13
Southwest Mt 8.41 8.61 8.77

US 1 Malt Barley US 2 Feed US 2
Harr/cwt Barley/cwt Oats/cwt
Billings Area na na
Golden Triangle 12.50-14.00 9.75-10.00
Great Falls Area 12.50 9.75-10.00
Northcentral Mt 10.00-11.00 9.50-10.00
Northeast Mt 12.50 9.00-10.75
Southeast Mt 10.75
Southwest Mt 8.50

*Prices not necessarily representative of all terminals within MT.

Source: USDA Market News Service, Billings, MT
406-657-6285.
24 hour price information 406-657-6400
www.ams.usda.gov/LSMarketNews


1420m mjh

I see this gives a good reflection of CWB pricing changes... if the CWB would only charge a fair basis we could be competitive with Montana.

Too bad we are not $20/t above Montana farm gate prices... like our grain system could actually deliver... if we really had an "orderly marketing" competitive system as was the case in barley during June and July!!!

[Zaphod]

My guess would be $15-20 a tonne lower on wheat with MGE about 60-80 cents a bushel lower than at the last PRO.

Durum will be up but I won't guess how much. A buddy in the milling business out east told me the CWB has been waiting with durum sales until the US runs out of product. Will they wait too long and chase the market lower? It's happened before.

Barley? Who knows? It all depends on whether they make any export sales.

Interesting that the CWRS EPO cost 10 cents a bushel more yesterday than on Tuesday. Does that mean they are trying to discourage people from taking the EPO just before they drop the PRO today?

[terralex]

I think that CWRS EPO increase and the rise in the FPC basis is designed to scare people into staying in the pool account.

My call is that the CWRS PRO with stay flat to maybe a $2 drop. EPO costs will increase and FPC basis will also increase. This will ensure that any fence riders will stay in the pool, and not take out any pricing options before Nov. 1.

The big drop in the PRO will occur in December, well after the sign up date for any PPO options.

It is all about making themselves look good.

[charliep]

And the answer is (drum roll).

New Record Highs for Durum in CWB 2007-08 PRO
Winnipeg -- The CWB today released its latest Pool Return Outlook (PRO) for the 2007-08 crop year. Milling durum PROs are $27 higher compared to September, as tight supplies continue to pressure prices to new record highs. The PRO for milling wheat is $2 to $5 lower than last month's PRO, mainly due to a slightly weaker outlook for world wheat market prices and the stronger forecast for the Canadian dollar. PROs for feed and malting barley are unchanged from last month.