Markets Strategies?

[charliep]

Just noting the markets again this am. Crude oil well above $90/barrel. Corn and soybean oil along for ride given biofuel connection. Wheat very little ethusiasm after coming off the highs. Loonie flirting with $1.04 US dollars again.

Thoughts about strategies in these markets? Strategies around CWB producer pricing options after yesterday release? Not many changes from what I can see.

[Zaphod]

How much of the rally in US grains is simply because of the collapse in the US dollar? It lets them keep exporting at full tilt.

[Kodiak]

All the market analysts - even you Charlie!?! - have thrown in the towel on wheat.

I think that's a good sign. Just like when markets are at the top, everyone is bullish - so I like it when everyone has turned bearish.

Personally I think there isn't much downside left for wheat. This slump has been healthy for the market, and now it can make another leg up. Starting at $7 or $8 is a nice place to begin a rally!

I am not pricing my remaining BPC's for now. As of now I'm against the March, and will watch for an opportunity to roll to May or July (maybe that's soon- the spreads are favorable. I'm very willing to risk waiting until March or April to price the remaining part - or June or July if the situation warrants. For the last few years, pricing in June/July has worked best for me.

[charliep]

Not necesarily bearish. Just dealing with the probabilities and the inverse in the market.

Will note that over time wheat prices have had to move on their own with supply shortages the only issue that drive markets higher. Soybeans have moved higher reflecting increasing usage in China. Corn has moved higher on ethanol.

A note is that markets are never wrong - only market analysts.