Things to Watch in the Week Ahead

[charliep]

What things are you watching in the market at the current time.

Still am watching currency and oil prices. Have started to slip. Have the highs been achieved in these 2 markets?

[SASKFARMER3]

Low temperatures in Argentina and Some of Australia over the weekend. Impact on the Canola in Australia and HRS in Argentina.

[SASKFARMER3]

Turning wetter in Brazil, they had a excellent rain in dryer areas with 2 - 4 inch rain. But Argentina was dry last week and it looks that way again. Australia will have 9 instead of 10.5 mt of Canola production this year.

[charliep]

Out by a zero on the Aussie canola forecast. Latest estimate 953,000 versus 1.66 mln tonnes during the summer and 512,000 in 2006. From the below article, Australia uses about 430,000 tonnes domestically and exports just under 1 MMT so the situation is not enough canola.

http://www.agriculture.com/ag/futuresource/FutureSourceStoryIndex.jhtml;jsessionid=BQGIPVFUVV DHNQFIBQPSCAQ?storyType=grain&storyId=111300706

[Zaphod]

German winter ****seed acreage is down by 8.5% compared to last year.

[TOM4CWB]

Charlie,

From Down Under:

"Canola Australian production estimates have been
reduced again. The national forecast is now 953,000t, down
from 1.05 mill tonnes last month. Victorian production is
estimated at 248,000t and NSW at 40,000t. While this is a
lot more than last year, it is presumably still well under the
normal domestic crush.
Victorian and SA crops being harvested to date are coming
in less than expected. The southern crops have continued to
get rains and should yield well to help compensate.
Vegetable oil prices are being driven by crude oil prices.
There is one view that prices won’t be sustained at
US$100//barrel, and will fall away, possibly back towards
US$70. That will undermine vegetable oil, and therefore
canola, prices.
Again, holding canola for higher prices is a high risk
strategy that may or may not work - there are too many
variables at work."

"Durum Cash Prices Effective from tomorrow, Harley
Milling have increased their cash prices by $30/t for all
grades. That puts DR1 at $550/t Kulpara and Balaklava,
down to $470/t for DR4."

"AWB Pool Estimates AWB lowered their pool estimates
by $10/t yesterday. Given that US futures have fallen by
$37.75/t since the last pool revision, it is a very strong
result. It has basically seen the basis for the pool improve
by $27.75/t to a record $32.77/t. For those with the extra$10/t from contracting into the pool, the basis is an even
higher record of $42.77/t."

So Charlie,

What did we do wrong on our "Futures Only" contracts with the basis ending up killing us!? SPLAT!